Bet West Virginia Over Texas Tech for Your Free NCAA Basketball Picks

Jeff Grant

Friday, January 30, 2015 2:28 PM GMT

Texas Tech occupies the basement of the Big 12 standings, but it may offer betting value by catching West Virginia in a potential letdown spot Saturday.

Different Outcome
Texas Tech dropped a lopsided 81-36 decision to the Oklahoma Sooners as 16-point road underdogs Wednesday, which is important to consider when making your NCAA Basketball picks, as it came just days after knocking off Iowa State at home.

Red Raiders head coach Tubby Smith summed up the effort as perhaps his worst loss he’s ever been a part of, as the team managed to knock down just 11 of 52 shots from the floor, while finishing with two assists versus 17 turnovers.

Smith has been unable to find the right combination of players to send out on the floor in 2014-15, as he’s had eight different starting lineups this season.

Sports bettors will find that the program is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

 

Letdown Spot?
West Virginia has won back-to-back games over Kansas State and TCU, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NCAA basketball odds, as it lands in a potential letdown spot with a road contest versus Oklahoma on deck.

The Mountaineers have compiled a 74-59 SU record in conference regular season games under Bob Huggins, while they’ve won 81 of their last 91 overall games when holding opponents to 69 or fewer points.

Defensively, the team will look to pressure Texas Tech in this spot, as it forced 19 turnovers in a 78-67 triumph as six-point road favorites in the first meeting.

It’s important to point out that the road team has covered the number in the last seven meetings in this series.

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Charity Work
The Red Raiders are seventh in the country in terms of getting to the free throw line, which fits nicely with the Mountaineers committing a foul on 53.5 percent of their opponents’ possessions.

Texas Tech knocked down just 22 of 37 shots from the charity stripe against West Virginia on Jan. 5, but its youthful roster demonstrated the ability to be aggressive offensively in this matchup.

 

Shooting Woes
The Mountaineers are certainly going to land in the 2015 NCAA Tournament field, but they’ve struggled to score in the half court—ranking 272nd in the country with a 46.1 effective field goal percentage.

West Virginia creates offense by causing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds, which has resulted in taking 338 more shots than opponents this year.

 

Outlook
I’ve developed a handicapper line favoring the Mountaineers by 16.5 points, which means sports bettors should back them at a number below that figure, while looking in the direction of the Red Raiders at 17 or higher.

NCAA Basketball Pick: West Virginia