Bet Valpo's Classic Offense to Dominate Belmont as the NCAA Basketball Pick

Charles Stark

Thursday, December 3, 2015 1:13 PM GMT

A clash of two of the top mid-majors take the floor when Belmont Bruins visit Valparaiso Crusaders tonight. NCAA basketball odds have made the Crusaders a pretty solid favorite at home.

Betting Odds
NCAA basketball odds have come out making Valpo a -8 favorite. Again, this seems like a pretty big number but the Crusaders are due for a big bounce back game after their last loss and being on the road for a stretch. For one of my selection today I will back Valparaiso laying the points and look for them to clamp things down on the defensive end.

Must Read: NCAA Basketball Betting Strategies

Belmont Bruins
Belmont comes in averaging 87.4 points per game, 51.3% shooting from the field, and 37% from beyond the arc.  Once again they are picked to be one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley Conference and have a solid group of returners.  They are excellent at moving the ball averaging 18.6 assists per game and they are serious about shooting from beyond the arc averaging almost 30 attempts per game from distance. 

Defensively the Bruins are allowing 83.1 points per game, 45% shooting from the field, and 35.7% from beyond the arc.  Along with their own up tempo Belmont wants to push pace which is evident allowing teams to attempt 65 shots per game which ranks as one of the most allowed in the country.  This could be a problem tonight though against a Valpo team that plays great defense and will take advantage at home of Belmont's lack thereof.

 

Valparaiso Crusaders
The Crusaders come in averaging 69.2 points per game, shooting 42.6% from the field, and 32.5% from beyond the arc. This is an extremely good basketball team that just finished a pretty tough stretch of games at Oregon, at Oregon State, and then at Ball State. In the last game against Ball State I backed them minus the points but they just did not play very well, which could happen on the last game of the road trip in a tough gym. I'm going to give them a flyer on this last game because I really think this team is legitimate. They have a very good core of returning players.

On the defensive side Valparaiso is allowing 62.7 points per game, 39.2% from the field shooting, and 34% from beyond the arc. This is the guts of this play is I think this team is more than prepared to face a good offensive team in Belmont. At home I look for them to ramp things up on this end of the floor and make scoring a very difficult task against the Bruins. After getting some rest, and coming off a loss, I look for Valparaiso to play their best game of the year.

This is the classic good offense versus good defense scenario, and I'm going to back the defense. For one of your NCAA basketball picks I recommend taking the Valparaiso Crusaders minus the points to stifle Belmont tonight. I am anticipating for Belmont to have their lowest scoring total so far this season.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Valparaiso -8 at Heritage

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