Bet Oregon -3 With Your NCAA Basketball Picks In Sweet 16 vs. Duke

Charles Stark

Thursday, March 24, 2016 10:11 AM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 24, 2016 10:11 AM UTC

NCAA Basketball odds have the Oregon Ducks as the small 3-point favorite but will the Duke Blue Devils be able to advance to the Elite Eight?

Betting Odds
Although Duke has been running thin this season, they have found ways to win and of course will be tough every game. Oregon is up next for them with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line and the Ducks have been playing tremendous basketball all season. 

Oddsmakers have made Oregon a -3 favorite at sportsbooks like Bookmaker (-110).  Although it is never easy to go against the Blue Devils for one of my NCAA Tournament picks I will back the Ducks minus the points to win by more than five and move on in the West Region.


Duke Blue Devils
Duke averages 81.5 points per game which ranks 14th in the country and survived a comeback bid by Yale in their last game.  It is hard to discount the reigning national champs but this is not the same team as last year no matter the name on the jersey.  The matchups at first glance actually look to favor Duke as Oregon likes to push tempo just like they do, but there are a couple glaring deficiencies that I believe will hinder the Blue Devils from advancing. 

On the season Duke has allowed opponents to go at a torrid pace allowing 62.3 attempts per game which is one of the worst rates in the country. They have also allowed opponents to shoot 44.3% from the field which ranks in the bottom third of all NCAA teams.  These two statistics combined will probably spell trouble against a very athletic scoring team in the Ducks.  Of course another issue to mention is how thin the Blue Devils have been, but I don’t think that will be the major issue in this contest.  I anticipate Duke will be able score but for the Ducks to score at a more proficient rate.


Oregon Ducks
Oregon is on a ten game winning streak and won both the PAC 12 regular season and tournament titles.  Coming into the season it seemed like they were primed to bounce back from last year and they have done just that.  They should come in with a lot of confidence against Duke although the ACC was tougher than the PAC 12 this season.  When we start to look at these teams they really mirror each other quite a bit from being efficient in scoring to push the pace.  Oregon though does a few things better, on top of the two previous defensive issues mentioned, than the Blue Devils which will only help the Ducks. 

Oregon is better at limiting opponent rebounds when compared to Duke, force more turnovers per game, and are better at limiting opponent field goals attempted per game.  Duke does protect the ball and part of the field goals attempted has to do with the pace of the game but for the most part Oregon has shown time and time again some strong perseverance and I believe the Blue Devils will have a hard time limiting them today.  They should be more than ready to play their best game of the year and beat the NCAA Tournament odds.

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Free NCAA Tournament Pick: Oregon -3 (-102)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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