Bet Indiana With Your NCAA Basketball Picks as Purdue's Offense is Unlikely to Keep the Pace

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, February 19, 2015 6:14 PM GMT

Thursday, Feb. 19, 2015 6:14 PM GMT

Purdue visits Indiana for a Big Ten clash and our college basketball betting expert analyzes the odds and previous trends in order to make the best NCAA Basketball pick for you at no cost!

Purdue vs. Indiana (-5) 7:00 ET ESPN
Purdue travels to in-state Big 10 rival tonight for a 7:00 ET tip at Assembly Hall against the Indiana Hoosiers. Purdue surprisingly enters at 9-4 SU in Big 10 play and listed on the  NCAA basketball odds at -4; tied with Maryland for 2nd place behind a Wisconsin team who has a commanding 3-game league lead.  At 8-5 SU, the Hoosiers trail the Boilermakers by a full game for 2nd place. These two met earlier this season with Purdue recording an 83-67 home court win.  Last year, this meeting was also played at Purdue with the Boilermakers romping to an 82-64 victory against their rival. Now, the venue switches to the Indiana home court with double revenge being a viable motive. Let's take a look at how these teams arrived at this juncture to see why the Hoosiers will get a convincing victory tonight.

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Purdue is one of the surprise teams in the Big East. Following a 5-13 SU conference season of last, the Boilermakers were picked to finish 13th in the league. Credit 10th year Purdue HC Matt Painter with authoring the turnaround.  Not only have they dropped just 4 league decisions (at Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota and at home to Maryland), but they have outperformed the linemaker's expectation by going 11-2 ATS in Big 10 play.  Using a physical style, so prevalent in the Big 10, Painter has successfully used a pair of 7 footers, either in tandem or separately, to slow the pace and grind out victories.  Credit to the Boilermakers for slowing the pace to the point where they have held their last 5 opponents to just 57 PPG.  In so doing, none of their games have totaled more than 128 points.  That all figures to change tonight.  

Under 7th year HC Tom Crean, the Indiana style is 100% diametrically opposed to that of Purdue. The Hoosiers love to get up and down the court.  In so doing, Indiana averages 80 PPG, 48% from the field, 42% from the arc (over 9 3 pointers per game) and 73% from the foul line. The Hoosiers have a positive rebound margin and solid, positive assist/TO ratio.  The offense is even more successful when playing on their home court.  At Assembly Hall, Indiana is averaging 84 PPG.  This includes going 6-0 SU on their home court in Big 10 play. Indiana is coming off one of the best offensive performances of the year in a 90-71 home victory over Minnesota on Sunday.  

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College basketball is often a matter of a team who imposes their preferred will on their opponent. I believe this will be a prime example tonight as home teams, with the backing of a rabid home crowd, has a tendency to win out in this regard. Should the Hoosiers get the tempo to their liking, a sluggish Purdue offense would be unlikely to keep pace.  Motivated by double revenge and playing on a court where they are 12-1 SU, make Indiana your college basketball pick and expect them to bolt to an early lead and build on that success.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Take Indiana -4 at 5Dimes

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