Bet Gonzaga -3.5 over Brigham Young for NCAA Basketball Picks

Joe Catalano

Tuesday, March 11, 2014 1:45 PM GMT

The NCAA Basketball game of the day involves the West Coast Conference in which the BYU Cougars (23-10, 13-5) duke it out with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (27-6, 15-3) for the WCC Tournament Championship. Where does the value lie for our sports picks?

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Tip-off is scheduled for tonight at 9:00 pm ET in Las Vegas, Nevada and can be seen on ESPN.

The betting lines are a little late getting out, but BetOnline Sportsbook lists the Bulldogs as a 3.5 point betting favorite in this neutral site matchup. This is a big game for both teams with an invitation to the NCAA Tournament on the line and seedings involved.

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Bursting the Bubble

BYU has come on strong towards the end of the year, winning 7 out of its last 8 games and appears to have burst the bubble that they were on to make it to the “Big Dance”.

The Cougars were lucky to get to the finals after a 79-77 victory over the San Francisco Dons in the semifinals of the WCC Conference. 28 points were scored in overtime and the WCC Player of the Year, Tyler Haws, had a very rough game in which he shot just 5 of 19 from the field for 24 points, but managed to be a perfect 14 for 14 from the free throw line.

This is 4th of 5 games that Haws has shot under 50% from the field, but Haws is a very productive player, averaging 23.4 points per game and his play will be the key for the Cougars to try to upset Gonzaga for the WCC Title.

BYU has a high-powered offense that’s 3rd in the nation in points per game (84.8), 6th in rebounds (41.2), and 17th in assists (15.9).

Guard, Kyle Collinsworth, is another player to watch. He’s playing at a very high level, averaging 20.5 points and 14 rebounds in his last 2 games. Gonzaga will have their hands full tonight.

Gonzaga had a bit of an easier test in getting into the conference finals when their defense did the job, forcing St.Mary’s to put up poor shots and winning the turnover battle in a 70-54 victory over the Gaels. NBA Hall of Famer, John Stockton, would be proud as his son, David Stockton, nearly tripled his seasonal average and led the Bulldogs with 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists.

Except for Haws, the Bulldogs have the better talent, team depth, and chemistry. Leading scorer, Sam Dower will need to have a better game as he’s 6 for 21 from the field in his last two games. Dower is a near 60% shooter from the field and this is quite unusual for the senior out of Minnesota to be shooting so poorly. Playing their team-style game and containing Tyler Haws will be the keys to the game for the Bulldogs.

Trends

Cougars are 19-39 ATS in their last 58 neutral site games

Cougars are 2-5 ATS following an ATS loss

Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

Favorite is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 matchups head to head

Outcome

If the trends hold true then Gonzaga is an easy winner for our college basketball picks. Look for Dower to have a bounce back game and Tyler Haws will also improve shooting-wise; he’s too good a player. Gonzaga is just the better team and the neutral site shouldn’t affect them.

College Basketball Pick: Gonzaga -3.5 at Bet 365