Bet Buffalo To Cover -4 With Your NCAA Basketball Picks vs. Ohio

Nikki Adams

Friday, February 12, 2016 8:28 PM UTC

Friday, Feb. 12, 2016 8:28 PM UTC

Mid-American rivals Ohio and Buffalo are on a collision course, set to clash at Alumni Arena tonight. Find out how the college basketball betting market stacks up along with our choice NCAA Basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Buffalo -4 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Ohio (15-8, 6-5)
Ohio Bobcats are riding a two-game winning streak into tonight’s MAC clash with the Buffalo Bulls. They’ll be looking to make it three in a row at the expense of their hosts, all while trading as the unassuming 4-point underdogs.

NCAA Basketball odds makers opened the line at 3.5-points but it’s moved up to 4-points across most sports betting platforms, where it’s held strong for the most part. That there appears to be consensus in the market where the line is concerned is telling – not only are sportsbooks hanging the game on 4-points but the juice seems to be set to -110 unanimously.

Public betting appears to be split down the middle on this game, with only a slight lean towards the Bobcats – as it is, 51% of spread tickets appears to be on the Bobcats to cover as the mere 4-point underdogs. It’s such a small edge to make it a moot point.

The Bobcats are after beating N Illinois 80-69 as the 5.5-point home chalk and Ball State 72-69 as the 1.5-point road underdogs. This latest surge in form has the Bobcats improving to five wins in their last seven games – the missteps came to Akron and Central Michigan. In each of their wins they also covered, twice as the underdogs.

Overall, the Bobcats are 15-8 SU on the season but 6-5 SU in conference play. They are 12-7-0 ATS on the season with a 3.5-point winning margin and a plus 0.5-point differential versus the spread. Indeed, they are second best of the Mid-American field versus the spread – only Akron has a better 12-6-0 ATS record. In Conference action though they are 5-6 ATS with a 1.6-point losing margin and a negative 3.5-point losing margin.

Things don’t look so hot for the Bobcats on the road, where they are 3-4 ATS with a 5.7-point losing margin on average and a negative 3.4-point differential versus the spread. As away underdogs, they are 2-3 ATS with a 7.6-point losing margin and negative 3.5-point differential versus the spread.


Buffalo (14-10, 7-4)
Buffalo Bulls are coming off an upset loss to Toledo, a narrow 71-69 loss at home on Tuesday night that snapped a four-game winning streak. The Bulls closed as the 2-point home chalk but failed to come through on those market expectations.

Nevertheless, the Bulls boast a positive 6-2 SU mark in their last eight games and the overwhelming expectation is for a bounce back performance at the expense of the visiting Ohio Bobcats.

Bulls are currently trading as the 4-point home chalk with the best price of -105 available at 5Dimes. Public betting appears to be split down the middle on this MAC clash (as indicated above) and the market hasn’t budged since reaching -4 across the board early in the day.

The Bobcats are 14-10 SU and 11-9-2 ATS on the season, which includes a 2.5-point winning margin and plus 2.1-point differential versus the spread. They are 7-4 SU and ATS in conference play with a 3.6-point winning margin and a plus 4.7-point differential versus the spread.

At home, the Bulls are 8-3 SU and 4-4-1 ATS with a 12-point winning margin and a plus 3.1-point differential versus the spread. As home faves they are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS with an 8.9-point winning margin and a plus 4.1-point differential versus the spread.

Most importantly, Buffalo are 6-3 SU and 6-1-1 ATS after a loss with a 2.4-point winning margin and a plus 5.5-point differential versus the spread.


By all accounts this should be a thrilling showdown between familiar foes, potentially even a close one as the market suggest. That said, the Bulls strike an awfully convincing pose as the home chalk by the stat. As such, we’re shading the hosts at -4 on our NCAA Basketball picks.

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