Best ATS Picks For Saturday, February 11

Matthew Jordan

Friday, February 10, 2017 9:49 PM UTC

Friday, Feb. 10, 2017 9:49 PM UTC

Last week in this space, I picked three double-digit NCAA basketball underdogs to cover. Two of them -- Iowa State (+11) at Kansas and San Jose State (+10.5) at New Mexico -- won outright! Here are three games I recommend for this Saturday.

Miami At No. 4 Louisville (-12)

The Hurricanes are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble at 16-7 overall and 6-5 in the ACC. Miami ranks 50th in RPI. So clearly this would be a huge win for its hopes. UM still has three regular-season games left vs. ranked teams as well, visiting No. 12 Virginia and No. 14 Florida State and hosting No. 18 Duke. UM has won four of five following a 74-68 victory Wednesday over Virginia Tech, another bubble team. The Hurricanes never trailed after halftime and went on an 18-2 run midway through second half to take a 65-49 lead.  The Canes are 15-1 this season when scoring at least 70 points as they are a good defensive club. Louisville is the highest-ranked ACC team, but that will change in Monday’s polls as the Cards are off a 71-55 blowout loss at Virginia on Monday. You can throw that game out in a way. Louisville forward Deng Adel (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and center Mangok Mathiang (7.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg) were both suspended for missing curfew last Saturday night. They will be back Saturday, as will starting point guard Quentin Snider. He has missed the past six games due to a hip injury but was back at practice this week and should be good to go. He averages 12.1 points and 4.0 assists. Louisville won four of its six games in Snider's absence but struggled offensively in the losses. Miami is 3-9 all-time vs. Louisville but won last year’s meeting 73-65. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five.

NCAAB Free Pick: Louisville -12Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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No. 2 Villanova At No. 24 Xavier (+4)

No NCAA Tournament worries for either of these teams, but the Big East regular-season title could essentially be decided in Cincinnati if Villanova wins. The defending national champions have won the conference’s regular-season crown the past three seasons and hold a one-game lead in the loss column over second-place Xavier. The Wildcats beat Xavier 79-54 on Jan. 10 so another win here gives Villanova the tiebreaker and essentially a three-game lead. Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart had 20 points in that victory. Villanova leads the Big East in offensive efficiency (117.4) and defensive efficiency (95.1), while Hart leads the nation with a 117.1 offensive rating. Hart is averaging 19.2 points per game, most in the Big East and on track to be the highest by a Villanova player since Randy Foye averaged 20.5 in 2006. Xavier would make the title race interesting with an upset and has won four in a row since a stretch of four losses in five games that began with the defeat to Villanova. The Musketeers’ past three wins have occurred since star point guard Edmond Sumner was lost to a season-ending injury. Villanova is 7-1 ATS in its past eight vs. Xavier.

NCAAB Free Pick: Villanova -4Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Iowa At Michigan State (-6.5)

Big-time NCAA Tournament bubble game in the weak Big Ten. Iowa (14-11, 6-6) is way down at 96th in the RPI so the Hawkeyes are on the wrong side of the bubble right now. Their only Top-50 wins are against Iowa State and Purdue. Iowa had a three-game losing streak end in a crushing 101-89 double-overtime defeat at Minnesota on Wednesday. Peter Jok had 28 points for the Hawkeyes, 26 after halftime. They were on the wrong end of a controversial jump-ball call late in regulation because several Iowa players were calling timeout. The Gophers instead took possession and tied the game at 77 with nine seconds left. Michigan State (14-10, 6-5) is No. 49 in the RPI. The Spartans have three Top-50 wins, two of those over Minnesota. Sparty had a two-game winning streak snapped in an ugly 86-57 rout at Michigan – a team that MSU had beaten by eight points just 11 days earlier. Tuesday’s loss matched Michigan State’s worst against the Wolverines since 1948. The Spartans turned it over 21 times and allowed UM to shoot 60.4 percent. This is the only scheduled meeting between Iowa and MSU. The Hawkeyes won both last season. They had lost 18 in a row in East Lansing. Iowa has covered just six of its past 20 conference games, however.

NCAAB Free Pick: MSU -6.5Best Line Offered: SportsBetting

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