Beating Oddsmakers Hasn't Been Easy for Tourney Faves

Monday, April 2, 2018 3:34 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 2, 2018 3:34 PM UTC

With only tonight's championship game remaining in the college basketball season, let's take a final look at how the NCAA Tournament has played out according to the numbers.

<h2 style="text-align:center;"><a href="" title="NCAAB Betting Forum">NCAA Tournament: Madness Betting Recap</a></h2><p>Though we had a plethora of upsets and saw 11th-seeded Loyola-Chicago reach the Final Four, the bottom line is a No. 1 seed (Villanova) is playing a No. 3 seed (Michigan) for the title tonight in San Antonio (9:20 ET, TBS). Though not an indicator of future results, the fact is both teams won their conference tournament, which gave them the added confidence that has propelled their success.</p><p>Here is a look at many of the key numbers from this year's tournament.</p><p><strong>Higher Seeds: 41-20 SU, 26-34-1 ATS</strong></p><p><strong>Favorites: 44-21 SU, 29-35-1 ATS</strong></p><p>If you want to take averages and predict the national championship, Villanova has a better than 67 chance of winning, but just 46 percent or less chance of beating the <a href="" title="NCAAB Odds">college basketball odds</a>.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Michigan. Villanova.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;See you Monday. &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;April 1, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>Normally as the tournament reaches the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, the cream rises to the top when considering seeds. Other than the Ramblers, that largely held true this year. However, beating the oddsmakers has remained an obstacle. Though the favorites won and covered both Final Four semifinals Saturday, the faves are only 3-3 ATS since the Elite 8.</p><p>With coach Jay Wright's Villanova club a 6.5-point favorite, based on how this tourney has played out, the Wildcats are a 2-to-1 choice to cut down the nets but have just a slight chance of covering the number.</p><p><strong>Favorites of 1 to 4.5 points: 14-12 SU, 9-17 ATS</strong></p><p><strong>Favorites of 5 to 9.5 points: 12-6 SU, 9-8-1 ATS</strong></p><p><strong>Favorites of 10 to 14.5 points: 12-2 SU, 7-7 ATS</strong></p><p><strong>Favorites of 15 or more points: 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS</strong></p><p>(One game was listed as Pick)</p><p>With the title game total at 144.5, there is about a 57-percent chance we will see an "under," based on two fronts. First is the general direction of the entire tournament, which has consistently trended toward lower scores. And the same has been true of sportsbooks' totals in the 140s, where it has been a nearly identical percentage.</p><p><strong>Total Unders: 37</strong></p><p><strong>Total Overs: 28 (1 Push)</strong></p><p><strong>129.5 or Fewer Points: 5-2 Under</strong></p><p><strong>130 to 139.5 Points: 10-7 Under</strong></p><p><strong>140 to 149.5 Points: 12-9-1 Under</strong></p><p><strong>150+ Points: 10-10</strong></p><p>Once again it has been a great season. Hopefully you enjoyed it as much as we did reporting it and you ended up on the positive side with your <a href="" title="Free NCAAB Picks">NCAAB picks</a>.</p><p>Until the start of the next college basketball campaign, adios!</p><p><em>Check out SBR’s <a href="">college basketball odds page</a> for updated lines. Also, head over to the <a href="">March Madness Betting Headquarters</a> for vital handicapping information, picks, and a list of the best sports books and live betting options for the tournament season.</em></p>
comment here