Baylor & TCU Over 142.5 Is Our Sharp NCAA Basketball Pick

Kevin Stott

Saturday, February 27, 2016 7:30 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 27, 2016 7:30 PM UTC

The #21 ranked Baylor Bears head to Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth, Texas on Saturday night to play the TCU Horned Frogs in a Big 12 showdown. Who will beat the NCAA Basketball odds?

Let’s dive in and take a look at the Trends, last 10 meetings in this series and then see what we can find out about this meeting this weekend from The Lone Star State and then provide a Hardwood NCAA Basketball pick for our readers.


Odds Overview
TCU (11-17, 2-13 Big 12) welcomes Taurean Prince and 19th-ranked Baylor (20-8, 9-6 Big 12) to Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth, Texas on Saturday night for a Big 12 meeting and chance for the Horned Frogs to snap a 4-game Losing streak. Offshore oddsmakers have opened up this game with Baylor as 8½-point favorites (Bookmaker) with the Total (Points) set at 140½ on the NCAA Basketball odds board (Bookmaker).


Baylor Bears
Ranked #19 in the AP Top 25 poll heading in here, Baylor (8-13-1 ATS, 3-7-0 ATS Away) and Head Coach Scott Drew have actually been a good go-against at the betting windows, registering a tepid 8-13-1 ATS mark heading in here overall (38.1%) but on the Road, the Bears are 4-4-1 ATS (50%) and have Road covers against some very talented conference-mates Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State. In their last game, Baylor (9/1 to win Big 12 Conference Tournament, Ladbrokes) lost to Kansas at Home in Waco, 66-60 (KS -2½, 150½, Under) as Al Freeman (17 points) and Taurean Prince (12 points) were in double-figures.

In the setback, the Bears Bench provided just 9 points (Rico Gathers had 7 points and 7 rebounds) and Baylor shot just 36.1% (22-61) from the Field against one of the best teams in the land in the #2 Jayhawks. Here, host Baylor (5-4 SU Road) will need Starters Lester Medford, Ishmail Wainright and Johnathan Motley as well as Prince, Freeman and Gathers to be productive as TCU has absolutely nothing to lose, will be playing on its Homecourt and may be able to simply outscore the athletic #19 Bears (78.2 AF-69.4 AA), thus the moderate 8½-point opener (Bookmaker). Baylor F Jo Acuil (Heart) is Out Indefinitely.


TCU Horned Frogs
The TCU Horned Frogs (10-12-0 ATS in Big 12, 5-5 ATS Home) and 3rd-year Head Coach Trent Johnson have registered just two Wins in Big 12 Conference play so far—at Home vs. (now) #25 Texas, 58-57 on Jan. 26 and against Oklahoma State at Home, 63-56 (Feb, 8)—and the former MWC (Mountain West Conference) school may have improved conferences with its fairly recent move but TCU has also put itself in a precarious position with the Men’s Basketball program with so many great schools already dwelling in the Big 12. Wins for TCU will be few and far between and there will sadly be no talk or hopes of making the Big Dance every March.

Playing in the MWC with schools like San Diego State, New Mexico and UNLV was hard for the Horned Frogs, but playing in a conference with the current (AP) #2 (Kansas),#3 (Oklahoma) #14 (West Virginia), #17 (Iowa State), #19 (Baylor) and #25 (Texas) teams is like now perpetually being an early victim in a Horror movie. In their last game on Tuesday, TCU (67.3 AF-70.4 AA) lost at Texas Tech, 89-73 (TT -11½, 134, Over) as Chauncey Collins (29 points) had a big game and Brandon Parrish (19 points), Malique Trent (15 points) and JD Miller (10 points) were all in double-digits for the Horned Frogs. TCU (150/1 to win Big 12 Conference Tournament, Ladbrokes) has L6 of its L7 SU and the Horned Frogs have some Injury issues with F Devonta Abron (Thigh) and F Karviar Shepherd (Back) listed as Questionable here and G Kenrich Williams (Knee) Out for the Season.


Best Betting Approaches and Series Trends
In the L10 meetings in this Big 12 series, Baylor has W8 SU and the Bears are 6-4 ATS in those 10 meetings and the Bears have a W3 ATS Streak heading in, covering (not winning) by 15, 12 and 5 (OT) points in those three contests vs. TCU. Baylor smashed TCU, 82-54 in the last meeting, this season in Waco (Jan. 13) easily covering as big 13-point chalks (143½, Under). The Over is a strong 6-2 ATS in the L8 meetings in this series while TCU (L4) is 3-7 ATS in its L10 against the Big 12 and the Horned Frogs are 0-9 SU vs. AP Top 25 teams and 1-9 SU at Home vs. Ranked teams this season. But Baylor is just 3-7-1 ATS in its L11 overall.

The Under is 8-1 in the Horned Frogs L9 Saturday games and 10-4 ATS in TCU’s L14 overall but the Over is 19-6-1 in Baylor’s L26 games played on a Saturday and the Over is also 6-2 ATS in the L8 Bears Road tilts and the L2 TCU games have gone Over by a robust 28 points (162 points scored, O/U 134 and 175 points scored, O/U at 147), so the oddsmakers are obviously off exactly 28 points on their Horned Frogs Totals. TCU is a strong Under team (7-15-0 O/U) while Baylor has skewed to the Over, with a 14-8-0 O/U mark and expect the Horned Frogs to try to control the pace here...likely in vain. This is a tough handicap, but logic says the Road Bears find a way to win in a close one in a relatively high-scoring affair where the points and perceptions of the ranked team may matter. This is actually a game TCU can win despite the 0-9 SU record against ranked opponents if Baylor comes in complacent and expecting a cakewalk like the first meeting.

Final Score Prediction: Baylor 77 TCU 70

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NCAA Basketball Picks: Over 142.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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