Baylor's Home Court Advantage Makes Them Our NCAA Basketball Pick Over TCU

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, January 13, 2016 5:31 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2016 5:31 PM UTC

The TCU Horned Frogs travel from Ft. Worth to Waco, TX for their Big 12 rivalry with the Baylor Bears. Don't miss our preview and find out our NCAA basketball pick for the night.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Baylor
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


TCU vs. Baylor (-12) 8:15 ET ESPN
These two teams met twice last year with the Bears escaping with a (66-59) victory at TCU, before blasting the Horned Frogs (77-57) on this court. Expect more of the same from the Bears tonight, as they are playing their best basketball of the year.

After getting walloped at Kansas in their Big 12 opener (102-94), only other loses at Oregon and Texas A&M, the Bears returned home to blast Oklahoma St. (79-62). They then followed that up by playing their best game of the year in a (94-89) upset at Iowa St. on Saturday. In my soon to be published article on CBKB’s “Smooth Operators,” you will see that the Bears are an integral part of the list. The Bears average 80 PPG on 46% shooting with 37% from the arc and a foul shooting percentage of 76%, which is essential in extending leads at this price range. Note also, the outstanding complementary numbers for Scott Drew’s boys in his 13th year at Waco. Their combined rebound margin, assist/TO margin and net TO margin is among the best in the nation at +19.1. Those numbers are indicators of true offensive success. Returning seniors, Gathers and Prince, lead a strong interior game, while the backcourt is handled by committee.


Betting Analysis
Tonight’s visitor is again ticketed for the basement of the Big 12. That does not mean the Horned Frogs are a bad team. It simply means they play in the deepest conference in the nation. Fourth year HC Trent Johnson appreciates the improved work ethic of his Frogs and the fact they have played outstanding ball on their home court this year, where they have lost by only 5 to SMU, only 8 to WVU and on Saturday, recorded a huge home underdog upset of Texas (58-57). In the role of road underdog though, the “Frogs as dogs” have struggled. With road losses in their 2 games of (69-48) to Oklahoma St. and (92-67) to Washington, neither of whom is as good as this Baylor team. 

Each of these teams hold notable upsets in their previous game. In such a case, when backed by home/road dichotomy such as we have here, I nearly always favor the dominant home team to continue their momentum against a road dog, who must look to duplicate consecutive huge emotional games against a superior opponent.

I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds in your favor and join me with my NCAA basketball pick on the Baylor Bears! 

***Don't Miss Our TCU vs. Baylor Total NCAA Basketball Pick***

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