Atlantic 10 Clash: Davidson Our Sharp NCAA Basketball Pick Over VCU

Charles Stark

Friday, January 29, 2016 12:48 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 29, 2016 12:48 PM GMT

For college basketball Friday we are going  to head to the Atlantic 10 where the VCU Rams visit the Davidson Wildcats. Last season VCU got crushed at Davidson, who will be our NCAA basketball pick?

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Davidson +2
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

NCAA basketball odds experts have made Davidson a +2.5 underdog and the total around 161. This is good value on a Davidson team that is undefeated in their home gym. Although Virginia Commonwealth is on a 10 game winning streak, there is a good chance that will end tonight against a Davidson team that is really well coached and can flat out score.  For my selection I will back them plus the points.

 

Virginia Commonwealth Rams
VCU comes in averaging 78 points per game while shooting 44.4% from the field, and allowing 66.8 points per game on 43.8% shooting from the field. On the season they are 11-4 overall against the spread and 6-2 on the road. After losing their head coach to Texas this team has not really missed a beat this season and once again looks like it could be a dark horse come March. Offensively they rank in the upper part of the country in most categories specifically with their tempo and three point shooting. On the season VCU is averaging 62.5 field-goal attempts per game which ranks 33rd in the country, and they rank in the upper portion of NCAA college basketball making 27.8 field goals per game. They also are very solid from beyond the arc averaging 38.1% per game. Defensively they can wreak havoc with their press but statistically they are only subpar so far this season, and good scoring teams have not had much trouble putting up points against them. Most notably they allow teams to put up plenty of shots allowing opponents 53.6 field-goal attempts per game. What they do well is defend from beyond the arc where although they allow teams to shoot 33.9% from distance, they only allow opponents an average of 16.1 three pointers attempted, and opponents are only averaging making 5.5 per game. Nevertheless, this will be tough for them tonight against a Davidson team that moves the ball extremely well and can be deadly at times from distance. On the road it'll be much more difficult for VCU to defend with the same type of intensity that they normally would at home.

 

Davidson Wildcats
Davidson is averaging 81.4 points per game while shooting 43.7% from the field, and allowing 80.2 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field. On the season they are just 5-11-1 overall against the spread, and 2-6-1 at home. This past week people probably got to know head coach Bob McKillop for getting recognized by his former player Stephen Curry. What college basketball people know though is that he is one of the best college basketball coaches of this generation. He is finally starting to get the recognition he deserves, but people in North Carolina have known about him, and how good he is, for years. Davidson will be well fired up tonight, and as usual they have an extremely good offense that VCU will have trouble stopping. Offensively the Wildcats rank 25th in the country in points per game, and have solid offensive statistics across the board. Statistically they rank towards the middle of NCAA college basketball on this side of the ball, but their tempo and pace assist them in putting up a lot of points. Davidson averages 63.1 field-goal attempts per game, and 28.9 of those come from beyond the arc where they rank eighth in the country. They also rank in the top part of the country in field goals made per game at 27.6 per contest, as well as three pointers made, averaging 9.9 per game which ranks 15th in the country. Defensively there is not much to say as they are ranked statistically in the lower part of NCAA college basketball in most categories. A lot of this has to do with the up-tempo pace they run, but they do defend much better at home, which I anticipate they will continue to do so tonight.

This will be a great matchup tonight of two teams that can put the ball in the basket at a consistent rate. VCU is showing they are probably the class of the Atlantic 10, but tonight there is a good reason why they are such a small favorite. For one of your NCAA basketball picks I recommend backing Davidson plus the points to take this game down to the wire or possibly pull the upset.

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