Arkansas vs. Duke: 2022 March Madness Picks and Odds

The West Region was shaken up by two upsets in the Sweet 16, leaving us with an unexpected Elite Eight matchup between the Arkansas Razorbacks and Duke Blue Devils. Read on for our best ATS and O/U picks in the Arkansas-Duke March Madness Elite Eight contest.

Arkansas turned in a masterful performance to upset No. 1 seed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. Head coach Eric Musselman employed a magnificent game plan that slowed the Bulldogs' transition game and made them operate in the half-court, never letting the tournament favorite get comfortable. As a result, the Razorbacks are on the precipice of their first Final Four appearance since 1995 and have not faced Duke since beating the Blue Devils 76-72 in the 1994 National Championship.

Every game could be the last for Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski, and the Blue Devils players are doing their best to have him end his career with a championship. When Duke trailed Michigan State by five points with 5:10 remaining in the Round of 32, it had a win probability of 25.1% before outscoring the Spartans by 14 points down the stretch. Duke trailed Texas Tech by just two with 3:19 remaining on Thursday, but its win probability was only 42.5% before closing on a 12-5 run. Those comeback wins led to Coach K's record 17th Elite Eight appearance and 100th career NCAA Tournament victory.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s Elite Eight matchup between Arkansas and Duke (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Arkansas vs. Duke Matchup Info

Date/Time: Saturday, March 26, 8:49 p.m. ETTV: TBSLocation: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

SEE ALSO: March Madness Top Picks and Odds

Arkansas vs. Duke Odds

Arkansas vs. Duke Odds Analysis

Duke opened as a 4-point favorite and briefly touched -4.5 on Friday morning. That is when Arkansas backers got heavily involved, driving this line down to -3.5 at most places. Arkansas' cover against Gonzaga was its first in the last four games, but fifth straight cover as an underdog, with three outright wins in that span. 

The total has also seen some line movement since the initial opening, ticking down from 147.5 to 147, even as low as 146.5 at some sportsbooks. The Over is 7-1 in Duke's last eight neutral site games and is 21-15 in Arkansas' 36 games overall this season. The Under cashed in Arkansas' last two NCAA Tournament games, following a stretch of seven consecutive Overs. Meanwhile, the Over is 8-1 in Duke's last nine.

Arkansas vs. Duke Picks

Arkansas +4 (-110) ?? Over 147.5 (-110) ????

SEE ALSO: All March Madness Picks

Arkansas vs. Duke ATS Picks

Arkansas +4 (-110)

The two big storylines that came out of the West Region's Sweet 16 games were that Duke continues its quest to send off Coach K with a national championship in his last season, and that Gonzaga once again underperformed relative to expectations as the tournament's top overall seed. Lost in the shuffle is Arkansas' stellar performance, which makes backing the little-talked-about Razorbacks all the more enticing.

Instead of Arkansas running-and-gunning with Gonzaga like it has been comfortable doing all season, the Razorbacks smartly dared the Bulldogs' perimeter players to beat them in a half-court game. As a result, Gonzaga went 5-for-21 from 3-point range, and the Razorbacks forced 15 turnovers (plus-7 turnover differential) for the game. 

Duke surprisingly used a good amount of zone defense in the second half of its game against Texas Tech, which threw off the Red Raiders. Musselman will have his players ready for whatever Coach K decides to throw at them in this game.

Caesars is one of the lone sportsbooks still offering Arkansas +4, so Razorbacks bettors should be sure to grab that extra half-point where they can.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Arkansas vs. Duke O/U Picks

Over 147.5 (-110)

While we like Arkansas to cover the spread, we cannot overlook how impressive Duke's offensive performance was against Texas Tech, particularly in the second half. The Blue Devils made their last eight shot attempts and did not miss a shot from the field over the final 8:55. One could argue Duke's best stretch of basketball of the season was its late comeback over the last five minutes against Michigan State in the second round. However, the Blue Devils outdid that performance down the stretch against the Red Raiders, the best defensive team in the country. 

The Sweet 16 game against Duke was only the third time Texas Tech allowed at least 70 points this season. In addition, Duke's 71% shooting in the second half was the highest percentage the Red Raiders allowed in any half over the last seven seasons. Thus, there is too much momentum heading into this game to not think the Over cashes.

Where to Bet on Arkansas-Duke Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Arkansas-Duke picks made 3/25/2022 at 9:10 a.m. ET