Arizona vs. Oregon: NCAA Basketball Picks

Jeff Grant

Thursday, January 10, 2013 1:15 PM GMT

Thursday, Jan. 10, 2013 1:15 PM GMT

The Oregon Ducks have won all 10 of their home games this year.let's break it down, as they take on one of three remaining undefeated teams for our free college basketball picks.


Let’s take a closer look at their Pac-12 Conference matchup with the Arizona Wildcats from a betting perspective.

Losing some steam

Arizona is still one of three undefeated teams in the country, but the program has gone 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games, coming off a 60-57 victory over the Utah Utes as 19-point home favorites.  The Wildcats are 2-0 to open Pac-12 play for the first time under fourth-year head coach Sean Miller, but they’ve gone just 22-21 ATS in conference play since 2010.

Home-court advantage

Oregon returns home after earning a 79-66 victory over the Oregon State Beavers as 1.5-point road favorites Sunday, while going UNDER the total for a second consecutive contest.  The Ducks will now look to improve their record to 11-0 at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, as they’ve won their first 10 home games by an average of 23.5 points per game.  

Sports bettors really need to keep a close eye on the betting odds, with the team being 5-2 ATS as home underdogs of three points or less since 2010, while going 0-3 ATS when favored by three points or less in that span.

Senior leadership

Solomon Hill and Mark Lyons are both averaging double figures in scoring this year, as the senior duo will need to lead the Wildcats to a victory Thursday night in the Pacific Northwest.  Hill has combined to score 30 points in his last two games against the Ducks, while Lyons will be getting his first taste of this rivalry.  

Falling short against top-10 foes

The Ducks are going to receive a good amount of action in this game due to their 20-7 ATS record in their last 27 games, but it’s important to note that they’ve dropped their last 10 games versus top-10 opponents in straight-up fashion.  Oregon is 33-23 ATS when facing teams with a winning record since 2010—but that mark will be tested in a big way in this affair.

Winning it at the line

Both teams come into this game shooting 73.6 percent or better from the charity stripe, but the Wildcats have outscored their last 13 opponents from the line by an average of 7.5 points per game.  In a game that figures to be tight in the closing minutes—I believe this is one of the biggest angles to handicap when making your college basketball picks against the spread in this matchup.

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Wildcats as one of their NCAA basketball picks,  as they’ve gone 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 road games versus a team with a winning home record.  The Ducks will fall to 2-6 ATS when playing host to a foe with a winning record on the road.

College Basketball Picks:  Arizona Wildcats -1 at BetOnline

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