Are Oddsmakers Being A Bit Over-Generous To Average Duke Side vs. NC State?

North Carolina State Wolfpack player in action

Kevin Stott

Monday, January 23, 2017 4:14 PM GMT

Monday, Jan. 23, 2017 4:14 PM GMT

With 8 of the L10 meetings in this series going Over, it would be easy to want to blindly back the total in this spot, but with NC State getting 16 (or more) points against #18 Duke, taking that many seems wise with the Blue Devils just 2-9 ATS their last 11.

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Duke Blue Devils 

NC State heads down Tobacco Road to Durham and Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday night to face #18 Duke in this ACC matchup. It is a big date for the Wolfpack who head in 0-4 away and 2-5 in conference. Offshore sportsbooks have opened Duke as 16-point favorites on Sunday with current NCAA Basketball odds showing the total set at 162.

 

NC State Wolfpack

NC State has struggled away (0-4 ATS Road) but the Wolfpack have played just 4 road games. NC State fell to Wake Forest, 93-88 at home Saturday (NC ST -1, 166) with Abdul Malik-Abu (20 points) and Dennis Smith Jr. (13 points) leading the way in the setback in which NC State (81.6 PS-77.2 PA) shot a respectable 51.6% from the field.

NC State are 23-10-2 ATS L35 after SU loss while the Under is 5-0 L5 after giving up 90+ Previous Game and 8-3 L11 Mondays with the Over 22-9 L31 overall.

 

Duke Blue Devils

Duke (5-4 ATS Home, 3-6 O/U Home)—led by Jeff Capel as head coach Mike Krzyzewski recovers from back surgery—needed a 20-0 2nd Half run to to beat Miami Saturday in Durham, 70-58 as the Blue Devils (82.8 PS-66.1 PA) erased a 36-25 Halftime deficit with Matt Jones (13 points) and Frank Jackson (10 points) coming off the Bench and helping the hosts avoid embarrassment (DUKE -10, 140½) and to the unlikely cover. Jason Tatum (14 points) and Luke Kennard (10) led Duke (#10 Pomeroy) starters.

The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS L5 home vs. teams with losing SU Record but 2-9 ATS L11 vs. ACC and 2-10-1 ATS L13 after SU win including 0-5 L5 in that spot. The Under’s 4-0 its L4 Monday games and 15-6 L21 home while the Over is 7-1 L8 ACC and 19-7 L26 after an SU win.

 

Series Trends, Best Betting Approach

When these two met here last season, Duke defeated NC State, 92-89 (DUKE -7½, 147½) and the Wolfpack have covered 2 straight and 4 of 6 in this series which has seen 3 straight Overs with a 19-6-1 Over mark L26 this series.

Expect many points here as Blue Devils like Grayson Allen (7 points) and Jefferson (5 points) will combine for more than the 12 they did Saturday and with Duke 5-15-1 ATS L21 Mondays and playing average basketball and the Wolfpack getting so many, taking the underdog makes sense.

 

Final Score Prediction: Duke 87 NC State 75Free NCAAB Pick: NC State +16½Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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