Add St. Mary’s To Rout Cal Poly As Your NCAA Basketball Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, December 14, 2015 7:25 PM GMT

It may be a limited NCAA Basketball card on Monday night, but that does not mean there is no profit potential as the Saint Mary’s Gaels should have their way with Cal Poly SLO.  

 

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NCAA Basketball Pick:  Saint Mary’s -9 (-104)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

There could be a late night blowout on the small Monday night NCAA Basketball board when the Cal Poly SLO Mustangs (5-3, 3-3ATS) of the Big West Conference pay a visit to the Saint Mary’s Gaels (6-1, 5-0 ATS) out of the more highly regarded West Coast Conference at McKeon Pavilion in Moraga, CA at 10:00 ET with live streaming available at TheW.tv

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Saint Mary’s as a decided home favorite for this contest with the current line at -9 with odds of -104.

 

Still Perfect ATS
Not only is St. Mary’s off to a 6-1 start, but it also remains perfect ATS at 5-0 after an encouraging effort even in its first loss of the season on Saturday, when the Gaels travelled to California of the Pac-12 and lost narrowly 63-59 as 6½-point underdogs. While Saint Mary’s shot a season-low 42.4 percent overall in that defeat, it did continue its great three-point shooting going 50.0 percent beyond the arc (8-for-16) vs. a quality foe on the road.

Cal Poly is off to a nice 5-3 start in its own right as it is 5-1 since beginning the season 0-2. The Mustangs were the winning NCAA Basketball picks 77-65 in their last game December 5th at home over a Fresno State team currently ranked 96th on the Pomeroy Ratings, giving them their first win this season over a Pomeroy 100 team.

 

Blistering Shooting
The Gaels were expected to be in a rebuilding year as they are 335th in the country in terms of experience averaging exactly 1.00 year per player, but instead this team that has usually had great offense is shooting better then ever, averaging 78.7 points while ranking fourth in the land in shooting percentage at 52.6 percent, second in effective field percentage at 62.4 percent, third in three-point shooting at 47.6 percent and 16th in two-point shooting at 56.8 percent!

Granted the Gaels opened up with six straight home games, but this very young team should still be encouraged by its first road game Saturday, particularly by the three-point shooting, and it should now enjoy being home again vs. a lesser foe, with no disrespect to Cal Poly. After all, the Gaels took a Golden Bears team ranked 55th on Pomeroy down to the wire on the road and now return home to face a Mustangs team ranked 95th.

Also, the Gaels should dominate the glass here and yield very few second chance opportunities to Cal Poly, as Saint Mary’s is an excellent 12th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage and offense rebounding is not a strong suit for the Mustangs, who rank 225th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 28.6 percent vs. a national average of 30.3 percent. Meanwhile the Gaels are above average on the offensive glass at 32.9 percent.

 

Poly Also Averaging 76.5 Points
Now, Cal Poly is scoring well enough in its own right this season averaging 76.5 points, and although the Mustangs do shoot the ball in Saint Mary’s territory, they are still a respectable 59th in effective field goal percentage at 53.3 percent. However, a red flag for Cal Poly here is that it is 0-2 in true road games and consistency has been a bit of an issue, as the win over Fresno State was preceded by a home loss to an IPFW team ranked 173rd on Pomeroy.

Granted the two season opening road losses were both vs. good competition at 59th ranked UNLV and 37th ranked UCLA, but this road venue is not any easier with Saint Mary’s currently ranked 65th on Pomeroy while being a better shooting team than any club that Cal Poly has faced so far. And the expected lack of second-chance opportunities for the Mustangs here is another detriment while playing in a tough hostile environment.

 

Resilient Gaels
Finally, while Saint Mary’s comes off of its first loss, it was certainly a game effort in Berkeley vs. a Pac-12 team and the Gaels have shown nice resiliency in the past, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. Saint Mary’s is also 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.

While we respect the start that Cal Poly is off to, we look for the Saint Mary’s home dominance to continue with a handy double-digit win in Moraga on Monday.