Add St. Joseph's +2.5 Our Sharp NCAA Basketball Pick vs. Dayton

Charles Stark

Saturday, March 12, 2016 2:29 PM GMT

The Atlantic 10 team makes a bit of noise. Today we head to that conference as St. Joseph's takes on Dayton in a game that should be tightly contested. Free NCAAB picks inside.

NCAA basketball odds experts have come out making St. Joseph's a +2 underdog and the total around 141. For one of my selection today I will back St. Joe's in this spot as I like how they match up with Dayton. I thought Dayton would come out as a little bit of a stronger favorite but there is good reasons why this game is close to a pick.

 

St. Joseph's Hawks
St. Joseph's averages 76.9 points per game and rank 14th in the country allowing opponents to shoot just 30.6% from beyond the arc. Earlier in the year they handled the Flyers at home in a game that was pretty tight most of the way. This team is one of the more underrated teams in the country as Dayton has gotten most of the publicity from the Atlantic 10, but don't sleep on the Hawks. Defensively they're one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 and although they do allow teams to get up-tempo against them allowing 61.7 field-goal attempts per game, they allow opponents to shoot just 41.2% overall which ranks in the top part of the country. Offensively they are not great but they are decently efficient and they have been good this year at getting up-tempo themelves and making shots averaging 26.9 field goals made per game. Dayton seems like the easy play in this matchup but this a well coached team that plays great defense and knows how to score against Dayton's very formidable pack line.

 

Dayton Flyers
Dayton has won their last three games in a row and defensively rank 30th in the country in opponent shooting efficiency. Although it seems like revenge should be the theme of the day this is actually a really tough matchup for the Flyers. Offensively they have some weapons but they don't do anything particularly well and they really keep the tempo at a slow pace averaging 55.3 field-goal attempts per game. They shoot the three decently well at over 35% but as mentioned that is where St. Joe's has played great defense all season, beyond the arc. Defensively they been very good keeping opponents in check allowing them to shoot just 40.7% overall with only 23.2 field goals made per game. Both of those statistics are good but they rank outside of the top 40 teams and that is what we see across the stat sheet with Dayton, good but not great statistics. If anything it seems like they have been a little bit charmed this year as their opponents have shot only 64.8% from the free-throw line which ranks Dayton fourth in the country in opponent free-throw percentage. As well, just looking at their last three games in two of those contests they came out with the victory but by only one point. Let's take care of our NCAA basketball pick now!

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NCAA Basketball Pick: St. Joseph's +2.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle