Add Miami +4 To Your NCAA Tournament Picks In Even Matchup vs. Villanova

Charles Stark

Thursday, March 24, 2016 10:52 AM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 24, 2016 10:52 AM UTC

The Villanova Wildcats have been made decent favorites on the NCAA Tournament odds board over the Miami Hurricanes but which team will move on to the Elite Eight?

Betting Odds
I was really impressed with Miami’s win over Wichita State and today they get the chance to move on against a real good Villanova team. 

Oddsmakers have come out making Miami a +4 underdog like at 5Dimes at -103 NCAA Tournament odds.  For one of my NCAA Tournament picks I will back Miami getting the points in this spot because I like how they matchup with Villanova. These two teams mirror each other for the most part from their offensive efficiency to their tough defense.


Miami Hurricanes
Miami ended up the season tied for second in the ACC and rank 20th and 22nd in shooting efficiency and overall shooting percentage respectively.  Although Wichita State was far from an offensive juggernaut the Canes really put the clamps down on them allowing the Shockers to shoot just 34% from the floor.  More impressively though for me was that Miami shot 55% overall that game and Wichita State ranked as one of the best defenses in the country.  Today’s matchup will be more difficult against a Villanova team that at times this season has looked like a national champion.  Offensively Miami should be able to have some success as they rank in the top part of the country across the board in their offensive percentages and they have been good protecting the basketball and limiting turnovers. 

Defensively they have been good ranking 34th in the country in opponent rebounds per game, 36th in opponent three pointers and attempted and made per game, and allowing opponents to shoot only 42.6% overall.  Their stats don’t jump off the page but the ACC was extremely tough this season and they did finish second so we have to keep it in proportion. I don’t believe Villanova would have finished any higher.


Villanova Wildcats
Villanova won the Big East regular season title, average 77.5 points per game, and ranked third in the country in average scoring margin.  The Wildcats also ranked third in the country averaging 56.9% on their two point shots and 13th in offensive efficiency.  They got surprised by Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament but throughout the year they have been one of the best teams in the country and have strong statistics on both sides of the ball. 

Defensively they rank 26th in both opponent two point shooting percentage and opponent field goals made per game.  They also rank 20th in opponent shooting efficiency and were arguably the best defensive team in the Big East this season.  Offensively they make their free throws and rank in the top part of the country in most scoring categories.  Much like the Hurricanes overall their statistics don’t really jump off the page but they are well coached and fundamentally sound.  Matchup wise there is not a lot of disparity between them and Miami so I will back the team getting the points from the tougher conference in this South Region clash.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Miami +4
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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