Add Louisville To Cover ATS Our NCAA Basketball Pick Over Virginia

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, January 31, 2016 2:56 PM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 31, 2016 2:56 PM UTC

ACC opponents collide this afternoon as Virginia seeks their fourth consecutive win while their hosts, the Louisville Cardinals, are gunning for their fifth victory. Let's review the NCAA basketball odds.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Louisville -6 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Virginia Cavaliers (16-4 SU, 7-11 ATS)
Virginia has won three in a row, all against conference opponents, which is a good thing for the school and their fans but those who are including them in their NCAA basketball picks cannot be too happy. That's because the Cavaliers have failed to cover the NCAA basketball odds in all three of those victories as well as the loss to Florida State immediately preceding their recent winning streak. The team is just 7-11 ATS on the season with their last ATS cover coming against Miami in their 66-58 win as 4 ½ point home chalk.

The team's last outing was a road tilt in Wake Forest that proved to be far more competitive than the oddsmakers had indicated it would be. Virginia was installed as eight-point traveling favorites and had it not been for Darius Thompson's bank shot three-pointer at the buzzer this would have been an upset for the Demon Deacons. Thompson's Demon crusher was one of four three-point shots made in the final minute to rally the Cavs back from the brink of defeat. Malcolm Brogdon bucketed 28 points and Anthony Gill chipped in 17 for Virginia.


Louisville Cardinals (17-3 SU, 8-8 ATS)
Louisville may be 7-2 straight up over their last nine games but they have been a bankroll buster during that time despite their success in the standings. Of those nine contests Louisville has failed to cover the number in seven thus their ATS record is 2-7 and diametrically opposite of their straight up mark over that span. In the team's last outing they took to the highway as 10-point road favorites in Virginia Tech and came away with a 91-83 win and yet another blown cover.

On a night when their defense failed them the Cardinals turned to a pair of sharpshooters to outgun the Hokies on Wednesday evening. Damion Lee was a stone cold slayer from downtown connecting on his first six three-point shots and ended the game with a team leading 29 points. Trey Lewis made four treys of his own and ended his evening with 22 points. The two graduate transfer students accounted for more than 56 percent of the Louisville offense while the big man in the middle, Chinanu Onuaku, fouled out early and played just 14 minutes which took away from the Cardinals inside game on both ends of the court. Instead of banging down low Louisville had to hand the reins of the offense to their perimeter guys and they came through big time.


Betting Analysis
These teams have yet to meet this season but last year the Cardinals covered the number in both games but split straight up with the Cavaliers. When the teams met in February of last year Virginia was installed as 6 ½ point favorites but it was the Cardinals who cashed for their backers as they fell 52-47 losing the game but covering the number.

This season Virginia is 3-7 ATS on the road while the Cardinals are undefeated straight up at home (13-0) and 6-3 ATS in all lined home games. The Cavaliers are averaging 72 points per game on the road while Louisville is averaging 84 PPG at home. Defensively the Cardinals are 5th in the nation limiting opponents to just 60 points per contest while the Cavaliers are not far behind in 11th spot allowing just 61.9 PPG.

The oddsmakers are not making this one easy installing the home team as 6 ½ point favorites. The Cardinals and Cavaliers share one common denominator and that is they both play nasty defense. However, when it comes to scoring the Cardinals have much more depth, talent and they bang the boards much better than Virginia. The scoring and rebounding edge is key for the Cards here and that is why they cover the number. is one of the few major offshore bookmakers hanging a 6 (versus 6 ½) so grab it while you can.

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