Add Iowa +7 To Your South Region Picks Against Villanova

Doug Upstone

Saturday, March 19, 2016 8:47 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 19, 2016 8:47 PM UTC

Villanova wiped out UNC-Asheville by 30 to start their NCAA tournament campaign, while Iowa had to play 45 minutes to hold off Temple, survive and advance in this thing called March Madness.

Doug's Record: 6-2-1 sides and 4-5 totals

The Hawkeyes might have won the game, but are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine which has to make anyone considering them have an unsettled stomach. After having shooting woes for some time, Iowa was stroking the three in making six of first nine. Than Hawkeyes fans witness something that has become frighteningly familiar, Iowa went 1 for 19 the rest of the game from behind the arc.

Anything even close will spell dome against Villanova, as the lidlifter on Sunday at 12:10 Eastern on CBS. The NCAA Tournament odds have the Wildcats favored at -6.5 and the total at 145.5, what should you be looking at?


The Betting Numbers
SU and ATS Records - 30-5, 16-17-1 ATS

Away Record - 15-4 and 9-9-1 ATS

Favorite Record - 29-4 and 16-16-1 ATS

Off a SU Win - 24-5 SU and 12-16-1 ATS


SU and ATS Record - 22-10, 14-15 ATS

Away Record - 9-8 and 7-10 ATS

Underdog Record - 3-4 and 4-3 ATS

Off a SU Win - 15-6 SU and 11-8 ATS


The Game Scoop
Villanova has a terrible reputation as a higher seed in this round of the NCAA Tournament and being a team that is perimeter oriented is not going to enhance the imagine of dependability. Jay Wright and his Wildcats know this is the game, the barrier that must be broken, the threshold that has to be crossed, in order to be considered something other than regular season Popeye's, who turn into Olive Oil's when March comes around.

Villanova was 13 for 28 from behind the arc on Friday, but that was against Asheville's limited zone defense. The Wildcats will have a hand in their face against Iowa team who should be much more relaxed knowing they not only won a game, but came through in the clutch when it counted the most. Josh Hart was not effective in tourney opener and has not been as dominating the last several games and chances are Nova does not advance without him having at least an above average game for him.

Iowa will take their share of three's but will have spent the last several hours going over two game tapes in particular of Villanova, losses to Oklahoma and Seton Hall. Though the Wildcats hold opposing teams to 39.9 percent shooting, they are not always great about getting back on defense after missed shots, which is something the Hawkeyes and the two aforementioned teams can or did exploit. Iowa likes to run when presented the opportunity and would be stunned if they did not push the ball at every chance.

Both teams feature senior leadership and yet are not brimming with confidence, making this an anticipated matchup to see who can hold it together.

Sagarin Spread - Villanova -4.55


Spread Winner and Totals Lean
This is what Dick Vitale would say has the makings of a "Maalox Masher". Both teams are quite capable of winning and covering the spread, but seldom put together 40 minutes of sound basketball against better competition. Yes, both teams have outstanding victories versus top level competitors but odd losses that make you ask, "Just how good is this team anyway?"

In common foes between the two squads, both have yet to lose and Villanova's (4-0 SU) margin of victory is 16.2 PPG and Iowa's (3-0 SU) is 13.6 PPG. One cannot possibly overlook the Hawkeyes are 2-10 ATS in neutral court games the last couple seasons, but one detail does pop up, they have only been outscored by -0.7 points.

In trying to determine a spread winner, cannot avoid the fact that the Wildcats who are coming off a shooting 57.9 percent Thursday, are 2-7 ATS after converting on more than half of shot attempts in next game this season. For NCAA Tournament picks, it's Iowa with the points with a lean on the OVER.

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NCAA Basketball Picks: Iowa +7
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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