Add Buffalo to your NCAA Basketball Picks as They Seek Revenge Against W. Michigan

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, January 27, 2015 3:59 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2015 3:59 PM UTC

W. Michigan travels the rim of Lake Erie thru the Snow Belt for a  clash with Buffalo at Alumni Arena. This team is hungry for a post-season appearance. Let’s go inside the NCAAB odds for a closer look at this game.

W. Michigan vs. Buffalo (-8) 7:00 ET
The W. Michigan Broncos travel the rim of Lake Erie thru the Snow Belt for a 7:00 ET clash with Buffalo at Alumni Arena.  Western is the defending champion of the MAC CCT, resulting in a Big Dance appearance and a 77-53 loss to Syracuse.  Buffalo is an emerging power under 2nd year HC Bobby Hurley.  Prior to Hurley’s arrival, the Bulls won just 14 games, a notable departure from their 20 win seasons.  Now, that Hurley has arrived, they have posted records of 19-10 SU and 13-5 SU in the MAC last year.  This team is very hungry for a post-season appearance.  Let’s go inside the numbers for a closer look at this game.

W. Michigan comes off a home loss to Akron (71-69) on Saturday.  That defeat drops the Broncos’ record to 13-6 SU, 8-7 ATS, as well as 4-2 SU ATS in MAC-West play.  That leaves them tied for the division lead with C. Michigan.  It was a position that is expected based on 4 RS from last year’s 23 win team.   Western shows strength on the offensive end, averaging 74 PPG on 47% shooting and 39% from behind the arc.  In an earlier meeting in Kalamazoo, Western Michigan prevailed (78-68) over Buffalo.  Last season, the Bulls won the only meeting of the year on this court (84-63).   

That defeat to Western sets up Buffalo for their first revenge meeting of the year.  In Hurley’s first year, Buffalo was a perfect 3-0 SU ATS in revenge games with dominant pointspread victories in all.  On Saturday, Buffalo lost a buzzer-beater at Ohio U (63-61).  Now, the Bulls not only play with revenge, but also off a loss.  That is a role in which Hurley’s Bulls stand 8-1 ATS of late.  Next, consider the fact that since last year, Buffalo is 13-3 ATS as home favorite on NCAA basketball odds. The Bulls are a stronger defensive team than Western, allowing just 67/41/32.  They also have positive margins in rebounding, assist/TOs and TO margin.  This puts them on the verge of Defensive Dandy status.  The offense is as prolific as Western, averaging 73 PPG.  They also knock down 73% from the stripe, ensuring late game success. 

The combination of revenge, home court and the Bulls off a loss make this a strong technical and situational NCAA basketball pick.  Combined with the better defense and solid foul shooting, the most probable outcome is a double digit victory for Buffalo, a team who has won their last 5 lined games at home by 9 or more points.

Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Take Buffalo -8 at 5Dimes

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