ACC Rivalry Upset: Add NC State +5 Our Sharp NCAA Basketball Pick vs. FSU

Swinging Johnson

Monday, February 1, 2016 12:59 PM GMT

Monday, Feb. 1, 2016 12:59 PM GMT

ACC rivals collide tonight as NC State takes on the Seminoles of Florida State who are gunning for their third consecutive victory. Let's review the NCAA basketball odds in this matchup.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: NC State +5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

NC State (12-10 SU, 9-9 ATS)
After dropping home contests to Duke and Georgia Tech the Wolfpack got back on track with an impressive win over No.15 ranked Miami. When the dust settled the five-point home underdogs captured an 85-69 victory and prevented a third consecutive setback on their home court. It was a stark turnaround for a team that put forth a lackluster effort in their previous game when they fell 90-83 to Georgia Tech as 4½ point home chalk. Anthony "Cat" Barber led the charge for State as he dropped 30 on the Hurricanes while his team crushed Miami on the glass with a 41-23 rebounding advantage. Four NC State players notched seven or more boards and the Wolfpack shot 58 percent in the second half, outscoring the "Canes 48-37 in the second frame.

Rebounding has been the hallmark to any success the Wolfpack has had this season. They rank 17th in the nation in that category hauling down 41.5 boards per game. Offensively this group is averaging 75.2 PPG (138th) and defensively are limiting their opponents to 71.6 PPG (178th). Junior guard Anthony Barber has been on fire lately scoring at least 30 points in three of his last four games rendering a season average of 23.1 points per game and leading the ACC.

 

Florida State (14-7 SU, 8-8 ATS)
The Seminoles avenged their first loss of 2016 when they delivered a 76-65 payback to the Clemson Tigers and covered the 4½ point impost for all those who included the 'Noles in their NCAA basketball picks on Saturday night. The team ran a promotion that night giving anyone who entered the Tucker Center free bacon in honor of freshman guard Dwayne Bacon and he didn't disappoint tying a season-high 15 points in the first half and ending the night with 21 points and six rebounds. The team's leading scorer Mike Beasley chipped in 16 points for FSU while senior guard Jeff Bookert extended his streak of connecting on at least one three-pointer to 10 games and is a sizzling 25-of-47 during that span from downtown.

The Seminoles are averaging 78.5 points per game (68th) while their defense is holding opponents to 72.6 PPG (206th). The team is grabbing 38.2 boards per contest which ranks them 96th in the nation. Florida State is 7-2 straight up and 3-2 ATS at home and are averaging 83.8 points when playing at home while holding the opposition to 70.7 points on their home court.

 

Betting Analysis
In their first and only meeting this season the NCAA basketball odds makers installed NC State as two-point home chalk but when the game ended the Seminoles proved that the bookmakers had the wrong favorite. Florida State sprinted out to a 10 point lead after the first half and held off a mild rally by the Wolfpack to seal the deal in a 85-78 road victory. But here we are less than three weeks removed and the line has shifted from FSU as two-point dogs to 5 ½ point favorites with the venue change. I think that is an overreaction and it causes me to lean on the road dog here.

The Wolfpack have played better defensively on the road this season than at home holding opponents to 66.7 points per game and going 5-2 ATS when on the highway. I also believe their big win over Miami will carry over to this one as this is a group that has clearly underachieved this season. Anthony Barber has been immense and I don't see any one of FSU's defenders shutting him down and the sizeable advantage on the boards will be another boon to NC State's chances at not only covering the number but gaining a straight up win against an ACC rival.

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