3-Pack Of ACC Picks For Saturday's College Hoops Card

Jay Pryce

Saturday, February 10, 2018 2:03 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 10, 2018 2:03 PM UTC

The ACC serves up a 3-pack of intriguing betting matchup’s Saturday, including Tobacco Road rivals North Carolina at North Carolina State, the Commonwealth Clash between Virginia Tech at Virginia, and Florida State at Notre Dame.

No. 21 North Carolina (-3) vs North Carolina State

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Free NCAAB Pick: Under 160.5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

North Carolina (18-7 SU, 10-13 ATS) is a 3-point favorite to avenge a 95-91 overtime loss to North Carolina State (16-8 SU, 8-9 ATS) just two weeks ago. The Wolfpack won the first matchup thanks to hot 3-point shooting, going 15-of-30 from deep. The Tar Heels, which shot 52.8 percent from the floor, went 4-of-19 from long range. Expect a colder night offensively from both this time around.

This is North Carolina’s sixth ACC road contest this season. It averages 40.4 percent from the floor, shooting greater than 43 percent once (45.2, Clemson). N.C. State owns the weakest defense of any of the opponents, and will run with Tar Heels all day. The Pack rank 49th and UNC 43rd in tempo nationally. Nevertheless, the final score will come up short of the betting market’s number. Here’s why:

Something is amiss with this year’s fast-break offense under Roy Williams. The Heels, which look to counter constantly, own just a 54.3 percent effective field goal rate in transition, slightly below a 56.8 percent national average. Defensively, UNC’s paint presence will smother the Pack’s rim action. Moreover, it’s highly unlikely State drains 50 percent behind the arc again. Go low on the over/under. It’s a race to 80 points, and only one team is hitting the mark.

Virginia Tech vs No. 2 Virginia (-13)

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Free NCAAB Pick: Under 130Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

Buzz Williams leads Virginia Tech (17-7 SU, 12-8 ATS) into John Paul Jones Arena to take on Virginia (23-1 SU, 16-4 ATS) for the fourth time in his career Saturday. Coach is still searching for a way to break through Tony Bennett’s stifling “pack line” defense. The Hokies scored 57, 49, and 48 in the previous visits, shooting just 36.6 percent from the floor overall. Here is Cavaliers' assistant coach Brad Soderberg presenting an in-depth scouting report on this year's Tech team:

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ORANGE & BLUE: Coach Soderberg joins @wahoovoice for the scouting report for the Commonwealth Clash game at JPJ tomorrow. #GoHoos #Wahoowa 🔶🔷🏀 pic.twitter.com/jsGvp8bSaB

— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) February 9, 2018

This is arguably the best Bennett defense yet. It ranks No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings, allowing 81.8 points per 100 possessions. ACC opponents average 52.5 points per game on 39.1 percent shooting. Nine of 12 foes have failed to hit their projected team total in the betting market by 6.9 points per game. The ‘under’ is 10-2, a 117.1 final tally coming up well short of a 126.0 average total. Until the Cavs falter, don’t buck the trend. Pick ‘under’ 130.5 here.

Florida State vs Notre Dame (-1)

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Free NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame +2Best Line Offered: at Heritage

Florida State (17-7 SU, 14-7 ATS) opened the season winning 11 of 12 contests, benefiting from one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country (331 out of 351 Division I teams).Scheduling cupcake opponents early in the year is the norm in Tallahassee. Since, the Seminoles are 6-6 in ACC play, going 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road.

One has to go back to the 2011-12 season, when Florida State ventured into the Sweet 16, to find the last time a Leonard Hamilton-coached squad tallied a winning conference road record versus .500 programs or better. Notre Dame is 14-10 SU, 8-12 ATS for the year.

The Irish picked up its first ACC win in is last seven attempts on Tuesday, topping Boston College 96-85 as 6.5-point chalk. The shots finally fell for Notre Dame after averaging below 40 percent in eight games prior. Senior point guard Matt Farrell is back to 100 percent health, allowing backcourt teammate T.J. Gibbs more room to operate. The sophomore drained a career-high 28 points in the victory. Greater scoring options will help the unit stay on track the rest of the season. “I hope we still have some more bullets in the gun for Saturday,” head coach Mike Brey joked after the win in anticipation of the Seminoles visit. We trust they do.

The home team has won five of six meetings since Notre Dame joined the ACC. Bet the Irish to take care of business here.

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