2017 NCAA Championship Pick: Gonzaga vs. North Carolina

Gonzaga Bulldogs players in action

Jason Lake

Sunday, April 2, 2017 2:28 PM GMT

The college basketball odds must be crazy: They’ve got the Gonzaga Bulldogs as 2-point underdogs to the North Carolina Tar Heels in Monday’s National Championship Game.

Are you ready for the most obvious college basketball pick in the history of time and space? Here it is Gonzaga +2. That’s where BetDSI has opened Monday’s National Championship Game (9:20 p.m. ET, CBS) between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the North Carolina Tar Heels. I know, right?

This is really something. You’d expect the Tar Heels (31-7 SU, 19-15-3 ATS) to be overvalued in this situation; it’s March Madness, it’s the title game, the betting public is going to be all over the Heels like a cheap suit. But 2-point favorites? For a team that’s almost five points per 100 possessions worse than Gonzaga, according to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced stats? That’s cray-cray.
 

Pound Cake

We’ve just confirmed the opening lines in Vegas also have North Carolina laying two points, so there you go. Was there an injury during Gonzaga’s 77-73 win over the South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5) that I missed? Let’s see... nope. The Bulldogs had the game pretty much sewn up until South Carolina went on a bizarre 16-0 run to take a brief second-half lead, so no payday for us this time, but there’s no way we’re not recommending the ‘Zags as a five-star deadbolt frog splash on the NCAA Basketball odds. Not at these prices.

Just to reiterate: Gonzaga, the best team in college basketball, is a 2-point underdog Monday night. FiveThirtyEight has the Bulldogs winning this game 62 percent of the time – that’s somewhere between Gonzaga –3 and –3.5 according to Wizard of Odds. And the Tar Heels just barely got by the Oregon Ducks (+4.5) to get into the Championship Game, winning 77-76 after Oregon failed to corral some missed free throws at the end.

These numbers don’t tell us everything. They can’t measure heart, and they don’t know if anyone’s going to be partying a bit too hard before the big game. But they’re screaming at us to pick Gonzaga. Who are we to argue?