"What If...?" How to Bet E. Washington vs. Georgetown 2nd Half Based on 1st Half Performance

SBR Staff

Thursday, March 19, 2015 5:16 PM GMT

Thursday, Mar. 19, 2015 5:16 PM GMT

Our expert handicapper takes a look at the Eastern Washington vs. Georgetown matchup that will play tonight at 9:57 PM ET. Join us in this game preview before placing your sports picks.

Offensive powerhouse Eastern Washington was awarded an NCAA Tournament game close to home in Portland, OR Thursday night, following a historic 2014-15 campaign which saw them break many team records for offense. At the center of this offense is NCAA’s scoring leader, junior Tyler Harvey, who smashed EWU’s career 3-pointers made record by 70 this year. But you don’t become the 3rd ranked offense nationally with just one player, senior Parker Kelly would have also broke the 3-pointers made record this year as well if it wasn’t for Harvey. Not to be outdone from the outside, inside threat Venky Jois has also put up two 38 point performances this year. With a lineup full of scoring threats, it’s not hard to see why the O/U of this game is currently listed at 147.5, with a 1H O/U line of 69.5. Let’s dig a little deeper into the Eagles scoring trends and see if we can’t find some value against the O/U 1H and 2H lines.

 

EWU 1H Avg

EWU 2H Avg

OPP 1H Avg

Opp 2H Avg

1H Total

2H Total

 37.82

 42.29

33.12

40.21

70.94

82.5


Here's Another Look at This Thursday Matchup

With EWU games currently averaging 70.94 in the first half, it certainly seems as if the line of 69.5 on the posted NCAA Tournament odds is sharp. Georgetown also has to travel 3,000 miles for this game so I wouldn’t be surprised if they started sluggish. EWU’s high tempo should give them plenty of chances to score though. It’s a tough call and again the line looks pretty sharp. No matter, it’s the halftime line that I am interested in, with an indicated O/U of around 78. There are some interesting trends that point to value in a wager Over this number.

First, EWU consistently scores higher in the second half than the first half – by an average of 4.47 points. That may not be a surprise to anyone who follows basketball and would be almost equal to the increase in the O/U line. However, EWU opponents score an average of 7.09 points higher in the second half. This indicates a meaningful trend that the Eagle defense could get worse as games goes on. And of course, the overall average lies above what the indicated second half O/U should be. However, there is an even stronger indicator in when an increase in second half scoring could occur:

EWU Scoring Increase 1H vs 2H with lead (21 Games): 2.29 Points

EWU Scoring Increase 1H vs 2H while trailing (13 Games): 8.00 Points

The Winner of This Matchup Will Face Whoever Wins Between S.F. Austin/Utah

Now, I think that Eastern has a real shot in this game, definitely ATS. But if they are behind at halftime against the favored Georgetown they will set their perimeter shooters loose to try to catch up. With a 40.3% season 3fg% this isn’t necessarily a desperation play. And it has worked for them in the past according to the increased second half scoring when playing from behind. Their coach, Jim Hayford, almost under-coaches at times on purpose to let his players play and free them up to follow the hot hand.

NCAA Tournament Pick: If Eastern is behind at half, but at or above the O/U pace, a play on the Halftime Over should be a strong one to add to your NCAA Tournament picks

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