'Over' Is Our NCAA Basketball Pick In Crucial Iowa vs. Indiana Big Ten Matchup

Charles Stark

Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:34 AM GMT

Two of the top three teams in the Big Ten meet when Iowa visits Indiana. It has been a surprisingly strong year so far for both of these teams. Is the total too high for our NCAA basketball picks?

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 152½
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA basketball odds have come out with the total of this game at 152.5 like at Bookmaker -110. I anticipate this game to be fast-paced, so for one of my NCAA picks today. I will be backing over the total in this matchup. This is a really important game to both teams, and will most likely go down to the wire.

 

Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is averaging 80.7 points per game while shooting 46.4% from the field, and allowing 67.4 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 11-9 overall on their over under totals, but 5-6 on the road. Head coach Fran McCaffrey has something special this year in the Hawkeyes, and they look like a team with a legitimate shot to do some serious damage come March. Offensively, they have been extremely good on the season as they really like to push the pace averaging 62 field-goal attempts per game while making 28.8 of those which ranks 18th in the country. They also shoot 39.7% from beyond the arc which ranks them 18th as well, and they can score from all over the floor. They are an unselfish team that averages 16.5 assists per game which ranks 22nd in the country, and they are decent hitting the glass averaging 38.6 rebounds per game. Tonight, they will face a team that likes to go up-tempo as well so we can anticipate I believe a lot of scoring. Defensively, they defend the three about as well as anybody in the country allowing opponents to shoot just 29.4% from distance. However, what they do allow is a really fast pace with opponents averaging 62.1 field-goal attempts per game which ranks in the bottom part of NCAA basketball. Iowa is a team that can score and likes to get up-tempo and spread the floor, and tonight they face a similar type of offense in Indiana.

 

Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana averages 84.1 points per game while shooting 51.1% from the field, and allowing 68.5 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 11-13 overall on their over under totals, and 7-6 at home. This team has done a much better job on the defensive side than they did last season which was a point of emphasis coming into this year, and probably a good reason their games have been overvalued on the total line. Tonight, however, they will give up some points because they face the best team they have all season, in my opinion. Offensively, the Hoosiers rank as one of the best in the country as they rank in the top five in overall, two and three point shooting percentage, effective field-goal percentage, shooting efficiency, and field goals made per game. This team can flat-out score and at home tonight I expect them to put up a lot of points. Defensively, although they have improved from last year, they still allow their fair share of points and rank outside the top 100 teams in their opponent shooting percentages and efficiency. They also allow teams to put up quite a few shots allowing 58.7 field-goal attempts per game. They like to go fast, and I expect tonight they will do just that against Iowa.

This game has track meet written all over it so for one of my NCAA basketball picks, I will back over the total when Iowa visits Indiana. This is an important matchup of two of the more surprising teams in the country and should be an extremely entertaining game that will come down to the last five minutes. Expect both of these teams to score, and score often.