NCAA Basketball Picks: Efficient Scoring Leads To 'Over' When Notre Dame Visits Miami

Charles Stark

Wednesday, February 3, 2016 12:21 PM UTC

Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2016 12:21 PM UTC

Miami is looking for a bounce back win after they played horribly at North Carolina St. Is this the right opportunity over Notre Dame? Don't miss the best NCAA basketball picks for the game.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 148½
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA basketball odds have the total of this game set at 150 like at Bookmaker -110. This total is quite surprising because Miami has not gone over this total in their last eight home games and have only gone over this total two times at home this season. This gets my radar up, so I will back the odds makers with my NCAA basketball picks and back over the total tonight between the Irish and Canes.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame is averaging 78.9 points per game while shooting 49.6% from the field, and allowing 69.4 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field. On the season the Irish are 11-8 overall on their over under totals, and 5-4 on the road. In true Mike Brey fashion this is your typical Notre Dame team, one that is very efficient on the offensive end, but will allow their share of points as well. Having Demetrius Jackson back in the lineup will be a tremendous boost because they really struggled without him against Syracuse two games ago. They are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the country ranking 13th in shooting efficiency and ninth in effective field-goal percentage. The Irish also rank in the top 10 in both overall shooting efficiency and in averaging 55.6% on their two-point shots. They also are dangerous from distance averaging 38.6% from beyond the arc. In short, this team can flat out score. On the defensive side, they do a nice job on the boards, but outside of that they really are not very strong from the inside out. Although the Irish allow opponents to only shoot 44.9% on their two-point shots, which ranks in the top part of the country, they are at the bottom of the rankings allowing opponents to shoot 38.6% from beyond the arc. As well, they rank well outside the top 100 teams in opponent shooting efficiency, opponent effective field-goal percentage, and opponent field goals made per game. Miami is the type of team that will give the Irish difficulty getting consistent stops.


Miami Hurricanes
Miami is averaging 78.8 points per game while shooting 47.5% from the field and allowing 66 point per game on 41.3% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 10-9 overall on their over under totals, but just 3-7 at home. They played arguably their worst game of the season at North Carolina State just a few days ago so look for them to bounce back in a big way against the defensively inept Irish. They have four guys averaging double figures, and most of their offensive statistics naturally go up at home. Offensively, there are no real glaring weaknesses except for perhaps their pace which ranks in the bottom part of the country averaging just 56.5 field-goal attempts per game. However, they rank in the top part of the country in shooting efficiency, overall shooting percentage, and effective field-goal percentage. With how poorly they played offensively at North Carolina State, this a great spot for them to bounce back with a lot of points. Defensively, they are decent statistically but not great. They allowed teams to get up and down the floor quite a bit against them and rank in the bottom half of the country in opponent field-goal attempts per game. There is not any defensive statistics that jumps out at me that says they will be able to put the clamps down on a good offensive team like Notre Dame.

This total seems too high, but I expect both of these teams to be very efficient tonight offensively. For one of your NCAA picks today, I recommend backing over the total when Notre Dame visits Miami and anticipate an entertaining up and down contest. I don't foresee either team to put together a consistent amount of defensive stops.

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