Wizards and Lakers to go ‘over’ is the NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, January 27, 2015 6:43 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

 

There could be a relatively high scoring contest in an non-conference NBA affair out west Tuesday night when the Washington Wizards (30-15, 12-9 away) pay a visit to the Los Angeles Lakers (12-33, 6-16 home) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet - DC.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 195 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -105.


High Scoring Win on Sunday
This is the third game of a four-game Western Conference road trip for the Wizards, who at 30-15 are currently the second seeds in the Eastern Conference despite not leading their division, as they trail the top seeded Atlanta Hawks by seven games in the Southeast Division. The trip did not get off to a good start with a 103-96 loss at Portland Saturday, but Washington regrouped to top the Phoenix Suns 117-115 in overtime Sunday.

Meanwhile the Lakers are trying to avoid their longest losing streak since 1994 as they have now been the losing NBA picks in eight straight games after a 99-87 loss here at home to the Houston Rockets on Sunday. And the Lakers are not only losing games on the court, but they also lost Kobe Bryant for the season to a torn rotator cuff, an injury that occurred last Wednesday in New Orleans.


Great Wall is Back
The Wizards have been able to maintain their seeding despite a recent slump by MVP candidate John Wall that recently saw him shoot 36.6 percent while averaging only 13.3 points in the last three games before the start of this trip. Apparently though the trek out west has agreed with him as he scored 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting in the loss in Portland and then had 19 points and 16 assists in the overtime win in Denver.

That recent slump aside, Wall is averaging a double-double for the season with 17.2 points and 10.2 assists while also adding 4.2 rebounds from the guard spot and 2.0 steals per game. He also loves facing the Lakers here at the Staples Center, as he has averaged 24.7 points and 14.7 assists while shooting an even 50.0 percent in three career games vs. the Lake Show in this building!

The Wizards remain only 17th in the NBA in scoring with their 99.9 points per game overall, but they have picked things up nicely while averaging 106.8 points over their last four games with the ‘over’ going 3-1 in those contests and their offense is almost certain to get some help here from an inept Los Angeles defense.


Defense? What Defense?
The Lakers are 29th or second to last in the NBA in points against at an atrocious 106.1 per game, 28th in field goal percentage allowed at 46.6 percent, 29th in three-point defense at 36.9 percent and 29th in defensive efficiency grading out at a hideous 108.2 points per 100 possessions. And to make matters worse the Lakers are allowing 114.7 points per game in the last three meetings with the Wizards after losing the first meeting this season 111-95 in DC.

When you combine that defense with a hot Wall and an improved Washington offense in recent games, it would not be so far-fetched to see the Wizards put up 110 points in this game! And that is a good thing for this ‘over’ because the Lakers have scored 85 and 87 points respectively in the two games since Kobe went down.

Still, if the Wizards score as much as we expect, this outcome should be decided early and even the Lakers should be able to pad their scoring a bit during rather extended garbage time, which would be another boon for the ‘over’.


An ‘over’ Series in Staples
Besides, the ‘over’ is now 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams here in Los Angeles and Bryant did not play when Washington won a 117-107 shootout here late last season.

Look for recent history to repeat, with Wall again coming up big to offset the absence of Bryant as the Wizards and Lakers again go ‘over’ in Los Angeles on Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: Wizards, Lakers ‘over’ 195 (-105)