Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Wednesday.
The worst team in the NBA may actually be presenting nice value against the point spread Wednesday night when those winless Philadelphia 76ers (0-17, 0-7 away) pay a visit to the Minnesota Timberwolves (4-12, 2-5 home) at the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN at 8:05 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet - Philadelphia.
The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Philadelphia as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +7 with odds of -105.
Is This the Night?
So will this be the night the 76ers win their first game and avoid tying the 2009-10 New Jersey Nets for the more consecutive losses to begin an NBA season with 18? Well, maybe, maybe not but to their credit the Sixers have continued to give it their all as they enter this contest on a 4-1 ATS run after covering vs. the defending champion San Antonio Spurs back home in Philadelphia in a 109-103 loss on Monday.
More reason for optimism for the Sixers is that the Timberwolves have been struggling in their own right as the losing NBA picks in 10 of their last 12 games, and at 4-12 they are also a last-place team, in this case in the Northwest Division. Granted a lot of the recent losing has been due to a depleted roster, but unfortunately that remains the case again tonight, which is yet another reason the 76ers have some hope.
The Timberwolves come off of a 127-101 lambasting at the hands of the Clippers in Los Angeles, and while that obviously would have been a very difficult assignment even under the best of circumstances, it was an almost impossible task given the team that Minnesota put out on the floor.
And it will be no different tonight when the Timberwolves will be without leading scorer Kevin Martin (fractured wrist), starting center and walking double-double Nikola Pekovic (sprained wrist), starting point guard and top distributor Ricky Rubio (ankle) and probably their most reliable reserve in Ronny Turiaf (hip).
So you can once again expect a starting lineup of Andrew Wiggins, Thaddeus Young, Gorgui Dieng, Corey Brewer and Mo Williams. As bad as the winless 76ers are, is that lineup really seven points better right now? And speaking of the prized rookie Wiggins, he has seen his shooting percentage over his maiden NBA season slip to 39.8 percent by going 12-for-39, 30.8 percent from the floor over his last four games.
Carter-Williams to Lead Upset?
So while it does not appear that Wiggin is on his way to a Rookie of the Year campaign, the 76ers do boast the reining Rookie of the Year in Michael Carter-Williams, and he is showing no signs of a sophomore slump. In fact it has been quite the opposite as he seems to have elevated his game and has helped Philadelphia hang in and cover spreads.
In the loss against the Spurs, Carter-Williams became just the second player in 76ers’ history to record at least 18 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in consecutive games, with the other player being a legend in Hal Greer! Moreover Carter-Williams is averaging a triple double in those last two games with 21.0 points, 11.5 assists and 10.5 rebounds.
Given all the injuries on the Minnesota side tonight, Carter-Williams may be the best player on the court, which is something that can rarely be said about a player on a winless team.
Covering Troubles for Minnesota
And while the recent covering spree has actually brought the 76ers to a quasi-respectable 8-9 ATS for the season, the Timberwolves have been abysmal vs. the number going 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and remember they were not as decimated as they are now when that string began.
So when you put this all together, the 76ers have a legitimate chance to earn their first victory and they actually appear to offer nice value getting this many points vs. a wounded Minnesota team on Wednesday.
NBA Pick: 76ers +7 (-105)