Can We Trust The Home Underdogs To Keep Covering on Wednesday?

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, October 31, 2018 3:22 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2018 3:22 PM UTC

Welcome to another big night of NBA regular season action! It’s time for another huge slate of NBA betting and there are still several bits of news and injuries you need to be aware of before placing your bets!

Home dogs in almost any sport are usually a good bet. That has been true to start this NBA season, but with four of Wednesday’s seven games hosting NBA Odds that favor the road team, can we bet on the trend continuing with some shaky teams hosting stacked opponents tonight?

A Home Dog Halloween?

So far through the first couple of weeks of the NBA season, home underdogs have gone 12-19 SU, but have been superb ATS covering at a rate of 18-13. However, four of Wednesday’s seven games have home underdogs between +3 and +7.5, and none of them look like a lock to cover.

The Wolves are potentially still without Andrew Wiggins tonight. Although you could argue they are better without him, the Jazz are a tough opponent wherever they play, and I could easily see them beating the dysfunctional Wolves team on the road.

The Bulls are already in tank mode as +8 underdogs against the Nuggets. Chicago is missing four of their five best players as well, so as a bad team already, they may be overvalued as +8 home dogs to a good Nuggets team.

The Knicks are home dogs against the gritty Pacers tonight in Madison Square Garden. Although the Knicks might end up as a good play ATS, the Pacers are very usually undervalued in these types of matchups. Last season Indiana went 7-5 ATS as a road favorite. They got better in the offseason, while the Knicks got worse.

Finally, the Suns are probably going to be without Devin Booker once again as they succumb to tanking in October, and they are +7.5 dogs against the Spurs. That line has gone from +5 to +7.5 too, so obviously some very sharp action has been thrown the Spurs’ way.

There is no doubt in my mind that one or even a pair of these dogs will cover tonight, the problem is I have no idea which one. If I had to pick, I would guess the Knicks or Wolves. However, to be honest, I could also see them all four losing SU and ATS tonight.

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Head NBA oddsmaker at SuperBook rates Anthony Davis the most valuable player to the point spread. He is out for Saturday's home game against Utah. The Pelicans are 6-point underdogs.

— Doug Kezirian (@DougESPN) 27 de outubro de 2018
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Anthony Davis Questionable Wednesday

We are once again faced with not knowing Anthony Davis’ status for tonight’s game. Hopefully news will be announced early like it was on Monday, and ESPN’s Marc Stein reported on Tuesday that the Pelicans will have a status update on Davis after morning shootaround.

That will probably be around the 2 or 3 o’clock hour Eastern Time, as the Pels are out west facing Golden State. Even with Davis in the lineup, the Pelicans are going to be huge dogs. However, if these NBA Odds are still high and Davis is playing, the Pelicans could be a good bet ATS.

They will be without Elfrid Payton, which hurts their defense some, but Davis is the only question mark to be concerned with for this game.

Wednesday NBA Betting Trends
  • The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against the Pistons
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 games between the Nets and Pistons
  • The Nuggets are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the Bulls
  • The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 games between the Nuggets and Bulls
  • The Pacers are 28-14 ATS as a favorite since 2017.
  • The Pelicans are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games against the Warriors
  • The OVER is 8-5 in the last 13 games between the Pelicans and Warriors
  • The Spurs are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Suns
  • The Mavericks are 5-3 SU & ATS in their last 8 games against the Lakers
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