Will Ailing Spurs Cover Against Visiting Nuggets?

free picks NBA

Jay Pryce

Saturday, January 13, 2018 2:04 PM UTC

Saturday, Jan. 13, 2018 2:04 PM UTC

The injury-riddled Spurs are likely without Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, and Danny Green hosting Denver Saturday night (8:30 p.m. ET). The betting line is late to the board as a result. Need a pick? We got ya covered. 

FreeNBA Picks: Spurs to Win ATS
Lines Yet to Be Released Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs

Spurs (28-15 SU, 17-26 ATS)

More Injuries For Spurs, Leonard Needed?

Have the Spurs played at full strength in any game this season? Doubtful, and they’ll be shorthanded hosting Denver again Saturday night (8:30 p.m. ET). As of publication, the line is off the board with oddsmakers awaiting the statuses of Kawhi Leonard (shoulder), Tony Parker (ankle), and Danny Green (groin). Newsflash: the trio is expected to miss.

Leonard, rehabbing from a quad injury much of the season, has played more than 20 minutes in a game just four times all season. The perennial MVP candidate is believed to have torn a muscle in his shoulder after knocking it while pushing through a screen at Phoenix on January 5.

Leonard’s production is badly missed, particularly on the road. San Antonio is just 9-12 SU and 8-12-1 ATS with the superstar out or logging fewer than 25 minutes in a contest. At AT&T Center, however, the team is still a juggernaut. The building is a fortress. San Antonio is 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS with Leonard logging few or no minutes at all.

The Spurs overachieve offensively in this spot, surpassing their projected team total in 12 of 18 games. They average 106.8 a night on 47.9 percent shooting. LaMarcus Aldridge is the go-to, putting up more than 20 points in 11 contests. He has scored double figures in all 41 games played this season.

Nuggets (22-20 SU, 18-24 ATS)

Nuggets Cold Shooting to Carry Over

The Nuggets are coming off an ugly 87-78 home win over Memphis. It was just the fifth time in the last decade the final score did not exceed 165 points at the typically high-scoring Pepsi Center. Denver tallied 18 points less than expected, recording a season-low .436 effective field goal rate.

Will the cold shooting travel to San Antonio? The following angle suggests so. The Nuggets have taken to the road four times this season after not matching their team total at Pepsi Center. They average 92.5 points per game on 42.3 percent from the floor next time out. Opponents included the Hornets, Jazz, Trail Blazers and Kings.

The Nuggets are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at AT&T Center under head coach Michael Malone, failing to cover a 13.4 average line by 2.6 points per game. The number should be in single-digit territory here. Shooting woes have plagued the team in the building, hitting just 42.0 percent from the field. They have also had issues defending the perimeter. San Antonio is hitting an eye-popping 49.3 percent of its 3-pointers.

The NBA Pick

The Spurs allow 98.4 points per game at home. Signals point to the Nuggets having a tough night offensively. When failing to hit the century mark on the road under head coach Michael Malone, Denver is 3-28 SU and 8-22-1 ATS overall. Lay the points regardless of the number. San Antonio buckles down and do what they do best: play Pop-inspired defense.

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