When To Bet (Or Fade) Unrested NBA Teams

Miami Heat

Saturday, February 11, 2017 5:27 PM GMT

SBR contributor Ross Benjamin touches upon the subject of how teams have fared this season when playing with no rest. Do you want to know what teams are profitable in these situations and which ones are not? Just go inside to get all that information and much more.

Since we’re nearing the NBA All-Star break, let’s look at how teams have done against the spread when playing with no rest. These ATS records in the table displayed below are reflective of games played through Thursday 2/9.

 

2016-2017 NBA Team ATS Records with No Rest

Team

ATS Record

Win %

Atlanta

8-3-0

72.7%

Boston

8-4-0

66.7%

Brooklyn

4-4-1

50.0%

Charlotte

3-8-0

27.3%

Chicago

5-7-0

41.7%

Cleveland

2-8-0

20.0%

Dallas

5-6-0

45.5%

Denver

4-7-0

36.4%

Detroit

2-7-0

22.2%

Golden State

3-7-0

30.0%

Houston

9-4-0

69.2%

Indiana

2-8-0

20.0%

LA Clippers

5-6-0

45.5%

LA Lakers

6-6-0

50.0%

Memphis

9-4-0

69.2%

Miami

8-1-0

88.9%

Milwaukee

3-8-0

27.3%

Minnesota

5-3-0

62.5%

New Orleans

3-7-0

30.0%

New York

5-6-0

45.5%

Oklahoma City

5-6-0

45.5%

Orlando

7-4-0

63.6%

Philadelphia

7-6-0

53.8%

Phoenix

5-4-0

55.6%

Portland

4-6-0

40.0%

Sacramento

6-5-1

54.5%

San Antonio

7-2-0

77.8%

Toronto

7-3-1

70.0%

Utah

5-7-1

41.7%

Washington

5-5-0

50.0%

 

Most Profitable Teams

Miami Heat: Even prior to going on their torrid 12-0 SU&ATS torrid winning run they’re currently on, Miami was extremely profitable when playing with no rest. The Heat are 8-1 ATS this season when cast into that specific role, and that includes a perfect 8-0 ATS when NBA betting odds display them as an underdog.

San Antonio Spurs: During recent seasons, I always stayed always from betting on or against San Antonio when they were playing with no rest. The Spurs veteran head coach Greg Popovich was notorious for sitting multiple starters when playing the second game in as many days. Even worse, he often didn’t disclose that type of information until sometimes up to a hour before the scheduled opening tip. Well, that uncertainty as subsided substantially since the retirement of Tim Duncan, and the diminished minutes played by veteran guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs are younger, more balanced, and deeper than they’ve been in recent years. San Antonio is 7-2 ATS this season when playing with no rest, and that includes 4-0 SU&ATS during their previous 4.

Honorable Mention
  • Atlanta Hawks (8-3 ATS)
  • Boston Celtics (8-4 ATS)

 

Teams to Fade

Cleveland Cavaliers: It may be a shocker to many of you, but Cleveland indeed falls under this heading. The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS this season when playing with no rest. As a matter of fact, if those games were on the road, Cleveland is an atrocious 0-7 SU&ATS, and their average margin of loss came by a sizable 10.3 points per game. Some of that futility is due to Lebron James being held out for precautionary measures on better than half of those occasions. Nonetheless, the numbers don’t lie, and fading Cleveland in these specific situations has been lucrative.

Indiana Pacers: Indiana is a dismal 2-8 ATS this season on the tail end of 2 games in 2 days. The Pacers are an even worse 0-5 SU&ATS if those games were played on the road, and they lost by a decisive 15.2 points per contest. Indiana is a talented but very young team, and it’s not uncommon for teams lacking the experience to have a difficult time in these types of scenarios. Fading an unrested Pacers team should be strongly considered when making your future NBA picks.

Honorable Mention
  • Detroit Pistons (2-7 ATS)
  • Charlotte Hornets (3-8 ATS)
  • Golden State Warriors (3-7 ATS)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (3-7 ATS)

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