When to Back Double-Digit Faves on NBA Betting Line

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, July 28, 2015 4:58 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 28, 2015 4:58 PM UTC

Can you make big money laying points with hefty favorites in the NBA? You can if you know the betting trends and what to look for. Follow along as we breakdown future double-digit point spreads. 

When taking a look at your NBA bets this coming season, it’s hard not to like teams like the Warriors, Cavs and Spurs. These are the top teams in the NBA future odds this offseason, and they will surely be big favorites against some of the bottom feeders in each conference. However does that mean they are a lock to cover in these instances? It depends on the time of year.

For instance, last season the San Antonio Spurs were 51-21 SU including the playoffs as favorites. However when you look at those same games ATS, the Spurs were only 35-34-2 ATS when playing as favorites. The outlier of course was the Warriors, who were an insane 78-14 SU as favorites overall, 48-4 SU as home favorites, and they were still a great bet ATS as favorites on the year, coming in at 53-38-1 ATS when they were laying points to their opponent.

But what about when they are big double digit favorites? The Warriors were severely undervalued for the first part of the season, which is where they did a lot of their damage ATS. The Warriors were 29-16 ATS in their first 45 games of the season, but went 18-19 ATS to finish out the regular season, before getting back on track ATS during the postseason. During the regular season, they were also only 17-16 ATS when favored by double figures, but when it came to the playoffs, they started to be overvalued, and went only 2-4 ATS as double-digit favorites. However, they went 10-5 ATS in their first 15 games as double-digit favorites to start the season, but finished the regular season only going 7-11 ATS as favorites of ten points or more.

However, we find a different pattern with the Cleveland Cavaliers last season as double-digit favorites. They started the season only 2-5 ATS as a double digit favorite, but by the 18th of March, the Cavs were 12-7 ATS as double digit favorites. This can be explained by the simple fact that the Cavs were of course overvalued early in the season thanks to the Lebron James factor, but after they figured things out in Cleveland, they were a solid bet as double-digit favorites. Golden State on the other hand was not really valued correctly before the new year hit, which explains how well they did ATS in the first half compared to the second half.

Now that the Warriors won’t be a surprise to everyone, you can bet that Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland will all be double-digit favorites a lot this upcoming season, but it appears that early in the season might be the best time to fade them as double-digit favorites.

Both the Cavs and Spurs were right around .500 ATS as double-digit favorites in the first three months of the season, and the Warriors were 11-8 ATS before the month of February. This would play into the narrative that the dog days of January is right around when the tide turns in favor of the good teams, and the bad teams start to realize they are bad. This could especially be true later in the season as well, when the bad teams are starting to tank. Laying the points on a double-digit spread late in the season with a team fighting for playoff positioning is probably a great move. 

However, this comes with a word of caution. Use this trend very situationally. It should be only one of the factors you bring into account when making your NBA Picks this upcoming season.  

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