Western Conference Playoff Race: Are the Warriors the Lock Bet in the West?

Wednesday, March 13, 2019 8:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 13, 2019 8:55 PM UTC

As the regular season hurtles towards the finish line we look at the Western Conference contenders and determine which team has the market cornered and, in turn, weigh in on our choice NBA picks.

<h2>Western Conference Title Race Close</h2><p>To look at the Western Conference table is to see a rather tightly packed race to the finish. Golden State Warriors are sat pretty atop the pile with a 45-21 SU mark, but the Denver Nuggets are merrily nipping at their heels with a 44-22 SU mark. Not far behind are the Houston Rockets with a 42-25 SU mark and then the tandem of Oklahoma and Portland with a 41-26 SU mark. Finally rounding out the top 8 spots are the Spurs, Clippers (both on 39 wins) and Jazz (37-29 SU). (W-L records as of Wednesday, March 13).</p><p>To look at sports betting market, however, is to get a totally different impression. A sense of a one-horse race rather than a closely knit pack with around 14 or so games left on the schedule. It’s the Warriors ahead by a country mile and then the rest.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;When the &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/warriors?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#warriors&lt;/a&gt; lose to one of the worst teams in the &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/nba?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#nba&lt;/a&gt; and you start to think they won’t win it all this year... &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/L0ediRLaAj\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/L0ediRLaAj&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Lukas (@Ginger4TheDucks) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Ginger4TheDucks/status/1104950170213474306?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;March 11, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><h2>Are the Golden State Warriors the Lock Bet in the West?</h2><p>Defending champions <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/to-win-outright/futures/" target="_blank">Golden State Warriors are yet again the top favorites</a> down the stretch across sports betting platforms.</p><p>Shocker.</p><p>Somehow, the Warriors always manage to be the last belle at the ball. It’s their fifth straight Western title bid so it’s no real surprise that they have this market cornered.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Warriors?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Warriors&lt;/a&gt; have proven to be a dangerous team from several spots on the floor. &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/J5yZwHZMTY\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/J5yZwHZMTY&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Warriors Nation (@WarriorNationCP) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/WarriorNationCP/status/1105709543634329601?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;March 13, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>Depending on your choice sportsbook the Warriors (45-21 SU) are tipped from a best price of -240 to a high of -380 as of Wednesday, March 13. And that price doesn’t look to be shrinking any time soon. This isn’t just a hype train to jump on. To many avid basketball betting fans, the Warriors are the real deal. So if you’re inclined to agree, best get on that price before all and sundry bet up the Warriors so high the value is lost.</p><p>It’s interesting to note Golden State is the worst side against the spread this season with a 26-39-1 ATS record and a 5.9 winning margin on average. That stat is the result of oddsmakers overinflating expectations in the market however so don’t read too much into it. Same goes for their ATS record against the Conference which is at 13-26-1 and includes a 5.2 winning margin on average. In terms of the Warriors, the stat that is most representative is that they are 24-10 SU at home, 11-3 SU against their division and 27-13 SU against their West. Importantly, they are the best team in recent history evidenced by their repeated success at the NBA Finals.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Eric Gordon is confident that &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rockets?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Rockets&lt;/a&gt; can take down &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Warriors?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Warriors&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Runasone?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Runasone&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/La09GdGC8d\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/La09GdGC8d&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Rockets Nation (@RocketsNationCP) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/RocketsNationCP/status/1105699394324553729?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;March 13, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>The question NBA bettors might consider here is whether there is a team that could topple the Warriors from their lofty perch atop the Western Conference table. Is there another bet worth considering?</p><p>Technically, with the win-loss records so close it’s a real possibility. The Warriors by no means have the title in the bag, even if the oddsmakers seem to be practically giving it to them all nicely wrapped up with a big pink bow way ahead of time.</p><p>If you’re a Rockets believer this could be their time, and as the second best bet in the West at <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4423&amp;book=BetOnline" target="_blank">+600 with BetOnline</a>, the Rockets do look tempting. Problem with the Rockets – as many are of the opinion – is they’re heavily reliant on one player. James Harden is practically carrying them on his shoulders and the genuine concern is that he could run out of gas by the time the regular season comes to a close. Essentially, a bet on the Rockets is a bet that Harden will come to the good. That’s a lot to ask, isn’t it? It’s worth noting that the Rockets are ahead of the Nuggets in market estimation but are behind Denver in the standings.</p><p>Currently, the best home team in the NBA are the Denver Nuggets with a 28-6-0 SU record. They’ve also got the most wins against conference opponents to date behind a 29-14 SU mark. Yet, the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/to-win-conference/futures/" target="_blank">Nuggets are a </a><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/to-win-conference/futures/" target="_blank">far flung</a><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/to-win-conference/futures/" target="_blank"> +1200 bet to win the Western Conference</a>. This is really interesting. Consider they only trail by a win to the Golden State Warriors and they’re two wins ahead of the Rockets.</p><p>What this market outlook may be down to in part is the fact that they have seven games on the schedule against playoff rivals, five of which are road games. The Nuggets aren’t as potent on the road as they are at home (16-16 SU), so it would be hard to see them overtake the Warriors as a result. Houston, by contrast, have five games against current playoff contenders and just two on the road.</p><p>NBA Betting Verdict: Betting against the Warriors has proven an ill-advised exercise over the last few seasons, so it’s really no wonder they have the market cornered. What’s more, stopping the Warriors is easier said than done. Once they light up – and they’re sure to do so – they’re formidable. So if you’re contemplating a bet on any other team don’t go betting the farm. Best value currently available on the Warriors is found at Sports Betting where they are tipped at -240 to win the Western Conference.</p>
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