The odds are -1250 Golden State wins the 2017 Western Conference finals over the San Antonio Spurs. Worth a bet? Our expert handicapper says: not at that price.
Online sportsbook 5Dimes opened the Warriors -1100 favorites to advance to the NBA Finals over the Spurs Thursday night following San Antonio’s series-clinching 114-75 rout over the Rockets. Early adjustments dipped the line to -1000 for Golden State Friday morning before crossing over the opening price to -1250 by noon. Game 1 is scheduled for Sunday at Oracle Arena, Golden State laying 10 points.
The top-seeded Warriors swept both the Trail Blazers and Jazz to reach their third straight conference finals. They are 27-6 SU and 20-13 ATS versus Western Conference foes in the postseason since losing two in a row in a second round matchup against the Grizzlies in 2014.
This is the Spurs’ first trip to the conference championship since 2013. In the Gregg Popovich era, they are 23-19 SU and ATS in the third round of the playoffs. Twice San Antonio represented the two seed (2004, 2012); it is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS overall. Popovich’s men tipped off favorites in each series.
Spurs superstar Kawhi Leonard is expected to play in Game 1 after sitting out the Rockets clincher with a sore left ankle. Expect Leonard to be close to 100 percent with two games of rest headed into the opener. In 11 postseason games, the best two-way player in the league is averaging 27.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists.
The -1250 series price is the second highest for any conference final’s favorite in the past decade. Last year, the Cavs defeated the Raptors 4-2 at -1350 NBA odds. The Warriors tipped off -430 versus the Thunder in 2016 and -880 over the Rockets in 2015.
Since 2002, the first and second seed have squared off for the conference final 15 times. Surprisingly, No. 2 has won 10 of the series. Ten also went six games or more. If inclined to back Golden State, perhaps wait to see if a early loss will dip the number to a more manageable number. The top seed has started 2-0 in just five matchups, while only one went 3-0 through the first trio of games.
Road games have rocked the top seed in this span on a game-to-game basis. It is 9-31 SU and 12-28 ATS overall, tipping off 3.9 underdogs on average. The Warriors will likely go off short-priced chalk at San Antonio—at least early in the series. As a road favorite, the top seed is just 1-5 SU and ATS under these conditions.Join The Conversation With Other NBA Bettors In SBR's Forum