Join us as we take a look at the NBA Props Odds in search of the most certain and best paying NBA Picks on Friday's Slate, and profit form the valuable insight of a proven basketball handicapper.
Russell Westbrook O/U 42.5 points, rebounds and assists
We saw in Game 2 that when Russell Westbrook is the best player on the floor, the Thunder have a chance at beating the Spurs. Leave out the horrible last 13 seconds that have been talked about to death over the last few days, and you find the other big storyline from Game 2 was Westbrook. He dominated the Spurs for 29 points and 10 assists, and now back at home, those number should only go up from here.
Westbrook has been much better at home these playoffs than on the road. In his three home games this postseason he is averaging 26.3 points, 8.6 assists and 10.3 rebounds. One of those games was a blowout that he didn’t play more than 30 minutes as well, and while tonight will be anything but a blowout, I expect Westbrook to come out swinging and aggressive. In games where he is attacking and setting up his teammates for open shots, the Thunder are tough to beat.
There is also the issue with Kevin Durant, who has a much tougher matchup against the two-time Defensive Player of the Year in Kawhi Leonard. Durant is going to have to work a lot harder for shots in this one, and it could lead to more attempts for Westbrook on the offensive end. I expect close to 30 points for Westbrook again in this one, and if he can get there, his total as offered by the NBA odds for this one should easily go over.
My Pick: Over 42.5 -120
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Al Horford O/U 23.5 Points, rebounds and assists
Speaking of guys who tend to play better at home, Al Horford needs to show up in this game or the Hawks are finished. Ever since he dropped 24 and 12 in Game 1 against the Celtics, Horford has been basically unheard of on the offensive end. The Cavs going small hurt him in Game 2, but the three-pointers hurt even more. He still had 10 points in 25 minutes, and if he can stay on the floor for 35 minutes in this one, I expect a big game from the Hawks big man.
At home this regular season, Horford averaged almost two points more per game, and he shot close to 52 percent from the floor. If this game isn’t a blowout, and the Cavs aren’t forcing the Hawks to play smaller, Horford is going to play a big role in this one, and his points, rebounds and assists total has reached it’s floor.
We talk about buying low in stocks and fantasy sports all the time, but the same can be said about NBA picks on props, especially in the playoffs. Horford is an All Star, and he is going to be a max offer this summer in free agency. However, more bad games like this and he is losing money this offseason. He needs to show up big the rest of the playoffs heading into his free agency year because it can mean the difference of millions of dollars. I expect the Hawks to establish Horford and Millsap early and often in this game, because they are their two best players, and they will have to have 20 points each if the Hawks want to win this game.
My Pick: Over 23.5
Best Line Offered: at bet365