Well Rested Conley & Home Court Advantage Makes Grizzlies the NBA Pick Over Warriors in Game 3

David Lawrence

Wednesday, May 6, 2015 1:06 PM GMT

Wednesday, May. 6, 2015 1:06 PM GMT

The Grizzlies handed the Warriors just their third home loss of the entire NBA season on Tuesday night in the Western Conference semifinals. Can they bounce back and cover the NBA odds in Memphis?

The Golden State Warriors Can Win Because…
They are going to play a lot better. You just haven’t seen Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both shoot poorly at the same time. Curry was 7 of 19 in Game 2, and just 2 of 11 from three-point range. Thompson was 6 of 15, and most of his made baskets came very late in the game, when Golden State was already trailing by eight or more points. The flow of the game had already been established, and Memphis was operating in a much more comfortable position. None of Thompson’s baskets were truly significant. Thompson was also just 1 of 6 from three-point range. Thompson also committed five turnovers, Curry three. Golden State was 6 of 26 in shooting three-pointers as a team. The Warriors turned the ball over 20 times. They could not have played much worse than they did, given their lack of three-point shooting and their many turnovers. Memphis scored over 20 points off the Warriors’ giveaways. Golden State did so many basic things inadequately, which means that as long as the Warriors can correct the errors they made in Game 2, they should be fine here. Memphis did play well in Game 2, but something unique happened on Tuesday: Golden State lost for the very first time all season when holding an opponent under 100 points. Game 2 was very rare from a statistical standpoint. It was an aberration. Game 3 should be more normal.

 

The Memphis Grizzlies Can Win Because…
They will have Mike Conley in condition to play even more than the 27 minutes he gave in Game 2. Conley scored 22 points in his 27 minutes in Game 2. If he can play 35 minutes, due to having three days in which to build a better base of fitness – he was fatigued in Game 2 and could not play more minutes as a result – Conley can make even more of an impact on this series. When Conley played, he contained Stephen Curry and made it hard for the new NBA MVP to get comfortable shots on most plays. If Conley can play more minutes and be even more active, Memphis can continue to establish what it put in place in Game 2. The Warriors got punched in the mouth and did not like it. Zach Randolph scored 20 points and grabbed key rebounds in the fourth quarter. Courtney Lee hit big jumpers when Golden State was trying to make a run. The Grizzlies have the ingredients and complementary parts in place to pull the upset.

 

Outlook
The Grizzlies made their statement in Game 2. They bothered the Warriors at every turn, and Golden State’s best players didn’t respond well. Memphis is helped by getting plenty of rest for Mike Conley, and they'll be at home. That’s enough reason to add them as your NBA pick and expect them to cash as a home dog on the NBA odds in this spot.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies +4 at GTBets

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