Weekly Betting Edge: Hedging NBA Playoff Updated Series Price Odds

betting edge

David Schwab

Monday, April 16, 2018 3:35 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 16, 2018 3:35 PM UTC

Game 1 of all eight matchups in the opening round of this year’s NBA playoffs are in the books. The early results have gone chalk for the most part against the closing betting lines at 5Dimes, but the recently updated series price for a few of these best-of-seven affairs offer some solid value in the numbers.

The betting results from this past weekend’s games saw six of the eight favorites win their series opener straight-up with five of the eight teams covering against the spread. The total went an even 4-4 on 5Dimes’ closing total line. Here is a closer look at a pair of series in each conference that offer the best value in the updated series price odds.

Eastern Conference Value

Indiana’s stunning 98-80 upset against Central Division rival Cleveland as a 7.5-point road underdog makes the Pacers’ +170 betting odds to win this series an intriguing play. Unfortunately, anyone betting against LeBron James in any other playoff series he has been in other than the NBA Finals has lost every time over the past seven years.

The team lurking in the wings to pull off an upset in the opening round in an Eastern Conference matchup could be the No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks. They lost to Boston 113-107 on Sunday in Game 1 as four-point road underdogs, but that game was decided in overtime. The adjusted series price odds have Milwaukee listed as +175 underdogs with Boston’s odds to win this series set at -205.

The betting line for Tuesday night’s Game 2 has the Bucks set as three-point road underdogs. I like their chances to get a straight-up win in Boston in Game 2 to swing home-court advantage in their favor. The Celtics now know they are in a fight that could take seven games to resolve. They also know that the loss of Kyrie Irving for the season along with Marcus Smart for the next few games is going to make things much more difficult to advance past this round.

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"JRUE HOLIDAY BLOCKED IT - THAT'LL DO IT!" - @JoelMeyersNBA #DoItBigger #NBAPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/wWaIJ5PMIm

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) April 15, 2018
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Western Conference Value

No. 2 Golden State won its series opener against San Antonio with ease, and No. 1 Houston got past Minnesota without its best effort in Game 1. Each of these Western Conference powers are prohibitive favorites to advance past this round. The team in trouble in the West is the No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers after losing to New Orleans 97-95 on Saturday night as 5.5-point home favorites.

Game 2 in Portland is set for Tuesday night with the Trail Blazers favored by six points. The Pelicans’ Game 1 upset has adjusted their odds to -105 to win this series, and while Portland is still favored to win its moneyline odds are down to -115. Before this series started, New Orleans was listed as a +180 underdog with the odds to win on the Trail Blazers set at -210.

The betting value in this series appears to lie with the better team at much more favorable odds, but I am not falling for the 5Dimes’ trap. Portland may have been the better team in the overall conference standings, but its poor play over its last 13 games at 5-8 straight-up should be a genuine concern. Conversely, the Pelicans came into this series with a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS. Momentum is clearly in their favor with Saturday’s win and they are in solid position to take a 2-0 series lead into the next two games at home.

The Trail Blazers had no answer for Anthony Davis in Game 1 with 35 points and 14 rebounds to go with four blocks and two steals. Forward Nikola Mirotic ended that game with 16 points and 11 rebounds. I liked New Orleans in a seven-game upset before this series started and I really like the Pelicans’ chances to prove me right after what I saw in Game 1.

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