Pistons vs. Cavs
Detroit finally got another win both SU and ATS last night after a stretch of games that saw them go 1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU. Even though they are on the back-to-back tonight, they have another chance at being a playoff spoiler here late in the season. Tonight they play the Cavs, and if the Pistons win, they could put the final nail in Cleveland’s playoff coffin.
The NBA Odds for this one favor the Cavs at -6 ½, with a total of 206. Despite the Pistons playing last night, they should be able to put up at least a solid game tonight. Their ATS record on the second half of a back to back isn’t great, (8-12 ATS) however Cleveland hasn’t been great in this particular spot either.
The Cavs are only 6-12 ATS as home favorites this season, and even with their home ATS record not being bad, whenever they are favored at home, it seems they are always a few points overvalued. Tonight is no different, as they are not six points better than the Pistons, even in Cleveland. With Kyrie Irving back, I think the sportsbooks are slightly overvaluing the Cavs again at home, and the Pistons could be the play on no rest.
Detroit is actually just over .500 as a road underdog this season at 15-14 ATS, and it’s really the only area they have been any good in this season when playing against the number. The Cavs have only covered two of their last ten meetings with the Pistons, and with Irving back, and the Pistons tired, Cleveland looks overvalued.
My Pick: Pistons +6 ½
Bobcats vs. Wizards
These two teams are locked into a playoff spot in the East, but the final seed can still be shuffled some. There is only a game in between the Wizards and Bobcats in the standings, so that should ensure they both play this game hard. Plus, it’s a bit too early for teams as young as the Wizards and Cats to be resting for the playoffs. However as always, make sure you double-check the news and notes before locking in your wager.
The Wizards at home have been ok this season ATS, however they are potentially down some starters in this game. Nene is back at practice, but he is probably still a ways away from game shape. Trevor Ariza is under the weather still after fighting the flu for the last few days. He didn’t practice Monday, and only went through a light workout yesterday. He has been playing through it, so it seems like he should play tonight unless he has gotten worse over the last 24 hours.
However either way, I still think the Cats could offer some value for our NBA picks tonight. They are in a spot that they have cashed many times this season, and I think they can take advantage. Charlotte is 19-13-2 ATS as a road underdog this season, while the Wizards are a league worse, 7-16-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Charlotte also boasts a 30-17 ATS record against the East, while the Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall, and 8-16-1 ATS in their last 25 games. I expect a close game, because if the Wizards lose, they would be tied with the Cats in the standings with only four games to go. Take the points with Charlotte.
My Pick: Bobcats +5