Wednesday's Top NBA Picks

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, April 2, 2014 11:53 AM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 2, 2014 11:53 AM UTC

The short card in last night’s NBA Odds is long gone, and tonight the NBA has 13 games on schedule. With all of the potential value to choose from, let’s jump into my two favorite NBA Picks of the day.

How are the NBA odds shifting as we near the playoffs

Bulls vs. Hawks
Chicago heads into Atlanta where the Hawks are a +2 ½ point underdog here at home, with a total of 186. The Hawks are in danger of falling out of the playoff race in the East, and if they lose tonight and the Knicks win, they will be tied with New York for the 8th seed, with only eight games to go in the season. 

The NBA Odds have the Bulls pretty undervalued here, and I am willing to take a stab with them as road favorites. While Chicago is only 5-7-1 ATS as road favorites this season, they have been one of the better conference teams at 24-20-1 ATS versus the Eastern Conference. 

On top of that, the Bulls have a distinct size advantage over the Hawks, and they will use it and their defense to smother the Hawks. Atlanta has zero inside scoring, and even though their All Star, Paul Millsap has been carrying the Hawks since Al Horford went down, he won’t have enough tonight against the likes of Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah, two of the leagues best post defenders. 

The Bulls have beaten the Hawks five straight times both SU and ATS, and tonight I think they make it six in a row. The Hawks are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games, and they are only 2-4 ATS in their last six home games against the Bulls. 

My Pick: Bulls -2 ½


Grizzlies vs. Wolves
Memphis is up to the 7th seed in the West and they are looking to add to their lead over the Suns tonight against the Wolves. The NBA Odds have the Grizzlies as a -4 ½ road favorite, with a total of just less than 200 points at 199. While I do think Memphis could have some value in the spread tonight, instead of betting the spread, I really love the total here at 199 points. 

Memphis’ road defense has been terrifyingly good this season, as they still rank #1 in the NBA on the road, giving up only around 92 points per game. Even though the Wolves are healthy, they also have nothing to play for, and while that helps some teams, it doesn’t really do much for the Wolves.

That’s why at 199, I really like the under tonight between these teams. Minnesota won’t even get close to their averages of 108 points per game at home, and in this their fourth meeting with the Grizzlies this season, I doubt they get north of 94 points. That is their average against the Grizzlies this season, and in their last two games against them this season, Memphis has held the Wolves to 90 and 92 points respectfully.

The under has cashed in two of the last three, and three of the last five times these two teams have met. The under has also been money when these two teams meet up in Minnesota. The under has cashed in five of the last six matchups from the Target Center. 

My Pick: UNDER 199


Shop Around for 2013-14 NBA Championship Betting Futures

comment here