It’s the middle of the work week and for those hunting down value against the betting odds at work, both basketball and baseball have offerings and there are also disagreements with the sportsbooks.
We easily found the four biggest line moves of the day and we’ll give you our opinion as to why this occurred and if it is correct. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (475-418 L169D)
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks 9:35 ET ESPN
One can only surmise this does not happen very often, a team scores 69 total points and the next night is part of a total that has a rising number. Yet it is true as the Suns scored a famished 69 points at Atlanta last evening and has seen their total of 204 with Dallas leap to 206.5. Obviously somebody making NBA picks is convinced Phoenix will shoot the ball much better after connecting on only 31.3 percent against the Hawks. Plus, the Mavericks defense has been underwhelming in facing three good offensive squads, surrendering a jaw-dropping 120.3 points a game. While it is true the Suns are 8-0 OVER on the road after an away loss, they have only scored 100 or more points once in their past eight contests.
NBA Pick – Play Under
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Portland Trail Blazers 10:05 ET FSN-N, CSN-NW
Minnesota is the worst defensive team in the Association (106.1 points allowed) and is even worse on the road playing like five matadors (108.9 PPG). With Portland’s offense humming in scoring 108.3 PPG in their last six tries, is it any wonder those going to the windows or online to place sports picks are resetting the NBA odds total upwards three points to 206.5? The easy answer is no and the Timberwolves are 32-11 OVER when they allow 105 or more points this season. The next factor to consider is the Blazers defensive intensity and they are 15-6 UNDER at home when the total is 200 or higher. It is a given the T-Wolves will go through the motions, but Portland’s focus might not be there either playing at Golden State tomorrow, leading to a free-flowing game without a great deal of defense.
NBA Pick – Play Over
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals 7:05 ET SNY, MASN2
The Nationals might be the choice over the long term to be National League champions, but with three projected starters out of the lineup, Washington is not generating much confidence among bettors or MLB baseball handicappers. Without Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth and forced to start washed up Dan Uggla at second, the Nats for a second straight contest have been dropped as favorites in the MLB odds. Washington on the overnight line was at -160 on the money line and now resides at under -135, in spite of Jordan Zimmermann their starting pitcher. Opposing Zimmermann is Jacob deGrom, the NL Rookie of the Year, but we will side with Zimm and his mates who are 33-12 after dark the last couple seasons.
MLB Pick – Washington wins
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 10:10 ET ESPN2
While it is just the first few days of the season, the Padres and Dodgers are giving the appearance they will play several more meaningful games this season. The public is giving San Diego a chance to take this opening series and lowered the Pads from +135 to +120 at Dodger Stadium. The revamped Padres batting order is more potent and tonight’s starting pitcher Andrew Cashner has a 1.53 lifetime ERA against Los Angeles. Brandon McCarthy signed a four-year, $48 million deal in December with L.A., but has a 6.62 ERA this spring. However, he was 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA last year versus the Friars, just against a much weaker outfit. Though it is a new season, with the adjusted odds, it's worth knowing for your MLB picks that the Dodgers were 12-20 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 in 2014.
MLB Pick – San Diego wins
Sports Book Review Tasty Trends
NBA ATS Trend
New Orleans is 16-4 ATS after two straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls this season.
MLB Money Line Trend
Kansas City is 22-7 at home with a money line of -100 to -125 the last two seasons.
NHL Money Line Trend
San Jose is 9-0 in road games after two or more consecutive losses this season.