Wednesday's Hottest Sports Picks & Tasty Trends Based on Odds Movements

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, March 11, 2015 5:19 PM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 11, 2015 5:19 PM GMT

College basketball conference tournaments start heating up in earnest beginning today and a dizzying array of games begin which for those putting together sports picks, this is a fun rest of the week.

Today we found three significant line moves and will also share a couple of NBA odds  totals which have been altered and are worth looking into. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (421-371 L148D)

 

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Boston Celtics  7:35 ET  SPSO, CSN-NE
For those making NBA picks, the total of 193.5 looked like a bargain and they have pounded it to 191. The Memphis defense has been even better than its usual standards, down to 93.8 points a game in their past five outings and compared to 95.3 PPG on the season. With the Boston defense playing better in their last four contests (93.7 PPG allowed vs. season average of 102.2) and having shot under 40 percent in four of their past six games; this looked like the right move. To further support this, Memphis is 15-3 UNDER playing their third road game in five days, but what could cause hesitancy is the Celtics at 9-1 OVER off a road win. 

NBA Pick – Slight lean Over

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Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks 8:05 ET  FS-FL, FS-WI
Several NBA basketball handicappers wondered aloud about Milwaukee trading Brandon Knight for essentially Michael Carter-Williams at the All- Star break. This might prove to be great long term move, but short term the jury was out in giving up your leading scorer. Since the trade, the Bucks have averaged a paltry 90 PPG (season average 97.7) and today’s adjusted total has sunk from 193.5 to 190. With Milwaukee fifth in scoring defense (96.7) and Orlando hitting the Brew City tallying just 84.6 PPG in their past three away encounters, there is reason to think points could be hard to come by.

NBA Pick – Lean Under

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Pittsburgh vs. N.C. State  7:00 ET  ESPN2
In looking over the NCAA Basketball oddsto win the ACC, a dark horse choice at many wagering outlets has been N.C. State. Yet for this contest against Pittsburgh, the Wolfpack have been sliding favorites, down from -4.5 to -3. Hoops bettors are thinking contrary, since the Panthers have lost three straight and are 1-4-1 ATS in last six. N.C. State is 5-1 SU and 6-1 ATS of late and playing well at the end of the season like a Mark Gottfried coached team usually does. Cannot come up with reason to back this move and just see added value with N.C. State. 

NCAA Basketball Pick –N.C. State covers

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Colorado vs. Oregon State  9:10 ET  PAC-12N
Though Oregon State has the better season record, it is Colorado who is being backed against the sportsbooks as NCAA Basketball pick. The Buffalos opened at -2 and rumbled to -3.5 because the Beavers have hardly been eager away from home at 2-11 and 2-10-1 ATS. Colorado is no sure thing at 2-10 and 3-8-1 ATS, but they much better offensively, averaging 63.8 PPG on the road compared to Oregon State’s measly 54.6 PPG. Because both these Pac-12 clubs are so bad when not a home, this seems like pretty generous points on the underdog for a key number and also being on the side of the better defensive squad.

NCAA Basketball Pick – Lean Oregon State

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Marquette vs. Seton Hall  7:00 ET  FS1
Each of these Big East clubs have really been in horrendous slumps heading in the tourney, yet sports bettors are preferring No.9 seed Marquette to No. 8 Seton Hall, flipping the Golden Eagles from +1 to -1. Not much to choose from with Marquette 1-6 SU and the Pirates 1-8 SU of late. For me this looks very much like a coin flip and I’ll lean with Seton Hall only because guard Sterling Gibbs is capable of a big game.

NCAA Basketball Pick – Slight lean Seton Hall

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Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

NBA ATS Trend
Golden State is 11-1 ATS in home games versus teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this season. 

NCAA Basketball ATS Trend
Bowling Green is 9-0 ATS after two or more consecutive Over’s the last two seasons. 

NCAA Basketball Totals Trend
DePaul is 8-0 UNDER off two straight Big East losses this season. 

NHL Money Line Trend
The N. Y. Rangers are 10-1 in road games playing their third game in four days since last season. 

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