I was a perfect 2-0 night ATS for my NBA Picks of the day on Tuesday, and now with up to 12 games to choose from tonight, the value should be just as good. I have found two more NBA Odds that I think you need to take advantage of tonight in order to pad your bankroll.
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
The first time these two teams met up this season, the game was a very slow and low scoring, and the NBA Odds have the Celtics as +4 home underdogs in this one, with a total of 196 points. In the first game of the season, the Raptors won SU but did not cover at home against Boston. While I do think the Celtics might have some slight value here, I see the total as a much safer bet. I’ve already been burned once by the Celtics taking points at home this week.
The under is 6-2 in the last eight games overall for the Raptors, and for Boston, six of their last nine home games have gone under the total. Despite the C’s playing pretty poorly on the defensive end recently, I think they can turn things around tonight against a team more focused on defense as well.
In their last ten games, the Raptors have been outstanding defensively, as their opponents are only averaging 88 points per game against them. While Boston is far from those impressive marks in their last ten games, the long west coast road trip really burned them. At home, they tend to play better on the defensive end, and even though the numbers don’t’ really show it, I see the total of 196 being a bit too high.
NBA Pick: UNDER 196
Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Injuries to the Pelicans have derailed their already very shaky defense, and going up against the Rockets tonight likely won’t help much. The NBA Odds have the Pelicans as +5 home underdogs tonight with a total of 204 ½. Even though the under is trending for both of these clubs right now, I could see a big resurgence in scoring on Wednesday in New Orleans.
Only 204 points is much too low for the Rockets’ fast paced offense, especially on the road. The Rockets score an average of 105 points per game when playing on the road this season, and with Chandler Parsons back in the lineup, it gives them a lot of different looks and much better three point percentages.
While the Rockets’ defensive averages are partially based on how fast they play, the Pelicans’ bad numbers are just because they aren’t that good. In their last ten games, New Orleans has given up nearly 106 points per game, and it probably won’t get much better with Jrue Holiday out of the lineup for the foreseeable future.
Both teams are also giving up around 105 points per game when they play western opponents, and with Houston’s offense almost better on the road than it is at home, look for the Pelicans to struggle to slow down both Dwight Howard and James Harden.
Both Rockets stars have no one to guard them on the Pels. Eric Gordon is not a great defender, and Anthony Davis is not yet big enough to handle Howard on the block. New Orleans creates some mismatch problems of their own, and that’s why I see the over being the play for our free NBA picks.
NBA Pick: OVER 204 ½