Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Picks: Back Dallas +8.5 At Home

Jake Walker

Thursday, March 17, 2016 11:52 PM GMT

The Golden State Warriors (61-6) visit the American Airlines Center to face the Dallas Mavericks (34-34). The Warriors are favored by 8.5 points on the NBA odds board and the total is set at 223.

Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors have won six straight games to inch closer to the 72-win record set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls and they still lead the Western Conference. The Warriors are coming off a dominant performance in a 121-85 home win against the Knicks. Stephen Curry scored 34 points, as he shot 8-for-13 from three-point range and 12-for-20 overall and Klay Thompson added 19 points with five three-pointers.
 
The Warriors lead the NBA with 115.7 points per game, shooting 48.9 percent from the floor and 41.5 percent from three-point range and they pull down 46.4 rebounds per game (third in the league). Golden State allows 104.3 points per game and their opponents shoot 43.5 percent overall (third in the NBA) and 32.9 percent from beyond the arc (third in the league) and grab 43.7 rebounds per game.

Stephen Curry leads the Warriors with 30.5 points and 2.0 steals, Klay Thompson averages 21.9 points and 3.8 rebounds and Draymond Green adds 13.6 points and team-bests with 9.7 rebounds and 7.4 assists.

 

Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are reeling, losing six of their last seven games, but they played well in last Wednesday's close 99-98 loss against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Mavericks came back from an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter against a Cavs team that gave LeBron James the night off to rest but they couldn't contain Kyrie Irving, who scored 33 points and made a key steal on Dirk Nowitzki in the end.

The Mavericks average 102.4 points per game (15th in the league) on 44.5 percent shooting overall and 34.2 percent shooting from three-point range and they pull down 42.9 rebounds per game. Defensively, Dallas allows 102.7 points per game (14th in the league) and their opponents shoot 45.0 percent from the floor and 33.7 percent from beyond the arc (seventh in the NBA) and grab 46.4 rebounds per game.

Dirk Nowitzki leads the Mavericks with 18.3 points and 0.7 blocks, Deron Williams averages 13.8 points and a team-best 5.6 assists and Chandler Parsons adds 13.7 points and 4.7 rebounds.

 

Betting Trends
The Warriors are 9-9 ATS in the second half of the season, 3-5 ATS after playing three consecutive home games and 20-16 ATS after a win by 10 points or more. The Mavericks are 35-32 ATS, 19-15 ATS in home games and 15-12 ATS after a non-conference game.

 

Final Analysis
The Warriors are an 8.5-point favorite on the NBA odds board and the total has been set at 223. This will be the third meeting of the season between these two teams. Each team won on their respective home court, the Mavericks beat the Warriors 114-91 in Dallas while Golden State won 127-107 at home. The Mavericks will play the Warriors tough at home once again. Dallas needs this game more and it's a potential playoff preview against a team that they know they can beat. That being said, I see the Warriors winning the game but the Mavericks will keep things close. I like Dallas +8.5 for my NBA picks.

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NBA Pick: Mavericks +8.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle