Warriors vs. Lakers NBA Picks: New-Look L.A. Favored at Home

The Golden State Warriors enter the 2021-22 NBA season with renewed title aspirations, led once again by PG Stephen Curry. Golden State has brought in some reinforcements with SF Otto Porter Jr., joining returning SF Andre Iguodala and rookie G Moses Moody; L.A. made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason in acquiring PG Russell Westbrook from the Washington Wizards.

The public has bet this line down to Lakers -3 after they opened as 4.5-point favorites. They now may have some value. The Lakers were a disappointing 34-44-1 against the spread last year, including 15-25 ATS at home and 13-20 ATS as home favorites. Those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, however, given the Lakers had to play a considerable amount of games without PF/C Anthony Davis and F LeBron James. They also should be expected to return to the Western Conference’s elite with Westbrook running point instead of Dennis Schroder.

The Warriors’ numbers from last year can be taken more seriously with a similar team taking the floor Tuesday. Golden State was 15-22 ATS on the road last year and 18-23 ATS as an underdog. The Warriors went 23-14 ATS at home, pegging them as an easy fade on the road.

Here are my picks and predictions for Tuesday’s NBA matchup between the Warriors and Lakers (odds via FanDuel).

Warriors vs. Lakers Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, October 19, 10 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Staples Center, Los Angeles, Calif.

Warriors vs. Lakers Odds Analysis

As mentioned above, this line opened at 4.5 points and has since been bet down as low as 3 at some books. The consensus seems to be that the Lakers are about -160 to -165 favorites on the money line, implying around a 62 percent chance L.A. wins.

The total opened at 231 points and has flown down to 226 at most books; however, a few are still offering 226.5.

Warriors vs. Lakers Picks

Lakers -3 (-112)Under 226 (-110)Lakers SG Kent Bazemore Over 8.5 points (-116)

SEE ALSO: Nets vs. Bucks picks

Warriors vs. Lakers Predictions

Lakers -3 (-112)

Los Angeles refused to shoot threes a year ago and finished 24th in 3-point attempts per game. The 2021-22 season could be a bit different, though, with the Lakers bringing in Bazemore. He shot 40.8 percent from 3-point range with the Warriors last season.

I think there’s some big upside to this offense, particularly when you consider Westbrook will allow James and Davis the chance to operate without a double-team all the time.

Under 226 (-110)

As I mentioned above, even with some renewed interest in shooting threes the Lakers should opt to bang inside with Davis. I think L.A. dominates on the offensive end, and on defense, we already know this was perhaps the best unit in basketball a year ago.

Golden State found its way as a defense on the perimeter as the season went along and will feature a strong presence outside with Curry locking up Westbrook.

Bazemore Over 8.5 points (-115)

Bazemore should see around 30 minutes in this game with injuries to SGs Talen Horton-Tucker (thumb) and Wayne Ellington (hamstring), and SF Trevor Ariza (ankle). In addition, PG Kendrick Nunn (ankle) is questionable for this one and SG Malik Monk (groin) will be playing through a minor injury. 

Bazemore should have room to operate with the defensive attention going to Westbrook, Davis and James, making him a good candidate to knock down a few shots.