NBA  

Warriors vs. Knicks: NBA Picks and Predictions

profile image of Ed.Solano
Warriors vs. Knicks: NBA Picks and Predictions
Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors. Tilton / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)

The Golden State Warriors hope to have Stephen Curry back when they visit the New York Knicks on Tuesday night. Here’s a complete preview, including updated odds and NBA picks.

Golden State Warriors vs. New York Knicks

Tuesday, February 23, 2021 – 07:30 PM EST at Madison Square Garden

The Warriors opened as 2.5-point favorites and over at FiveThirtyEight, they have them at a PK. This leaves a 2.5-point gap between the projections and the actual NBA odds. We need at least two points between the projections and the lines before we lay any serious wood. Here we are getting enough. FiveThirtyEight gives the Knicks a 51 percent chance to win. The equivalent moneyline is -104.

For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Warriors at -3.50 using his Rating numbers, and at -0.41 using his eigenvector analysis. That leaves plenty of room to grab potential betting value with the Knicks +2.5 at sportsbetting.ag.

Will Steph Play on Tuesday?

Warriors star guard Stephen Curry (plus-7.5 Offensive Box Plus/Minus) missed Saturday's 102-100 road loss against the Hornets because he was "not feeling well." Curry went through pre-game warmups but was scratched before the game started and replaced by Mychal Mulder. Head coach Steve Kerr is optimistic that Curry will be able to play in this game. "Hopefully," Kerr said on Saturday. "We'll see how he's feeling the next couple of days." The Warriors have lost back-to-back games and three of their last five.

We cashed with the severely depleted Magic as 5.5-point home underdogs on Friday when they beat the Warriors 124-120. Golden State followed that up with a valiant effort in Charlotte without Curry. The Warriors almost had the win but a technical foul on Draymond Green with 9.3 seconds to play when they were ahead 100-98, led to two free-throws and a game-winning field goal, all by Terry Rozier and the Hornets won the game 102-100. Kelly Oubre Jr. is playing out of his mind after a dreadful start, he had 25 points on 4 of 9 from beyond the arc against the Hornets and he's averaging 24.7 points on 50.0 percent shooting from 3-point range in his last three games. The Warriors need Oubre to step up once again if they want to beat a deep Knicks team.

Will D-Rose Get Going Again?

The surging Knicks have won four of their last five games. They recently beat the Hawks and Timberwolves at home but also lost a winnable game against the Magic in Orlando. Julius Randle had 25 points, 14 rebounds and four assists on Sunday's 103-99 win against the Timberwolves to continue his breakout season and RJ Barrett also had a strong week, with 21 points against the Hawks, 15 points against the Magic and 21 points against the Timberwolves.

One player that can be a difference-maker on Tuesday is Derrick Rose (plus-0.3 Offensive Box Plus/Minus). He played for the Knicks in the 2016-17 season and a casual narrative, one of the worst of all-time, was that he was done after he left the team. Real fans who watched that first stint in New York know that Rose had big performances, was explosive, skilled and took games over. D-Rose averaged 18.0 points, 4.4 assists and 3.8 rebounds in 32.5 minutes over 64 games but a torn cartilage in his left knee ended his season early and he left the Knicks in free agency.

Part II in New York was off to an incredible start but Rose is in the middle of a shooting slump, averaging 5.3 points and 2.3 assists while going just 5-for-27 (18.5 percent) from the field in his last three games. Overall, Rose is averaging 10.0 points and 3.2 assists on 37.9 percent shooting in 20.3 minutes over six games with the Knicks this season. The Knicks need more offense from D-Rose in order to beat the Warriors.

Prediction

If Curry plays, we know what to expect from him, he will always deliver, even when his shots are not falling but the Warriors are particularly dangerous when he gets some help on offense. Kelly Oubre Jr. and Andrew Wiggins have stepped up as of late and big games from them would help the Warriors a lot, especially if Curry is out. More help seems to be on the way. Rookie James Wiseman, who suffered a sprained left wrist in a 118-91 home win against the Pistons on January 30th and Kevon Looney (left ankle sprain) could return for this game, helping their depth at center.

I'm looking at the Under. Draymond Green, Eric Paschall and Juan Toscano-Anderson will have a tough assignment on defense, trying to contain Julius Randle (plus-3.3 Offensive Box Plus/Minus) but getting Wiseman and Looney back would give them a massive boost on defense. The Knicks are seeing just 97.9 possessions per game (last in the NBA) and they will try to control the pace. All of this helps our cause. As always, we suggest you wait as long as possible to find out who’s playing before placing your bets but the Under is 5-3 in Golden State last eight games and 7-3 in New York's last 10 games.

My Pick: Under 220 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Under 220(-108)
Visit Site

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.