Warriors vs. Heat NBA Picks: Wade's Status to Shift Value?

Jason Lake

Wednesday, January 14, 2015 12:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2015 12:59 PM UTC

The Miami Heat overcame the NBA odds twice this week at the Staples Center. Now it’s off to Northern California, where the Golden State Warriors are on a six-game home winning streak at 5-1 ATS.

Jason’s record as of Jan. 13: 23-23-1 ATS, 2-4 Totals

It can’t be easy being a Miami Heat fan these days. Not that anyone’s going to feel sorry for them after four straight trips to the NBA Finals and two championships. But the post-LeBron James Heat aren’t doing quite as well as they may have hoped going into the 2014-15 campaign. Injuries and ineffectiveness have Miami below the .500 mark on the season at 17-21 SU and 17-20-1 ATS.

At least the Heat are still good enough for seventh place in the awful Eastern Conference. And they just beat the Los Angeles Lakers 78-75 on Tuesday night as 2.5-point road favorites, giving them back-to-back wins SU and ATS at Staples. Well done. But things will get much more difficult Wednesday night (10:30 p.m. ET) at the Oracle when Miami faces the Golden State Warriors, the best team in the NBA. Golden State opened as a 12-point favorite on the NBA odds board before quickly moving to –13 as we go to press.


Golden Rose, the Color of the Dream I Had
Earlier this week, we had the great good fortune of handicapping last Friday’s game between the Warriors (30-5 SU, 24-11 ATS) and the Cleveland Cavaliers – also without LeBron James – and Golden State just happened to be a 13.5-point home fave when the basketball odds closed. Score one for the good guys: The Warriors won 112-94. Then they went to Salt Lake City Tuesday night and put away the Utah Jazz 116-105. Once again, Golden State got paid at –8. That’s seven straight wins for the Dubs at 6-1 ATS.

Not much more we can say about the Warriors that hasn’t already been said. Andrew Bogut (plus-6.1 DBPM) did end up getting his starting assignment back; he had a very efficient nine points, eight rebounds and three assists in 26 minutes against the Jazz, while Marreese Speights (22.1 PER) contributed 10 points off the bench, making him one of six Warriors to score in double figures. Nobody had to play more than 29 minutes in Tuesday’s game. They should be crescent fresh on Wednesday.


We’re not so sure about the Heat. They did beat the Lakers, but as usual, it was more a case of the Lakers beating themselves. Kobe Bryant hit just three of his 19 shots, and he was just one of several bricklayers working for L.A. on Tuesday. As for Miami, cover your eyes, folks. The Heat went 2-of-16 from downtown, turned the ball over 18 times, and lost Dwyane Wade (24.2 PER) to a strained left hamstring. He’s considered questionable for Wednesday.

Which makes us wonder why this game hasn’t been circled on the NBA odds board. Wade is playing at a very high level, leading the team at plus-4.7 OBPM and 24.8 points per 36 minutes. But nobody seems to notice anymore now that LeBron is gone and the Heat are struggling. Wade was tops among all Miami players Tuesday night at plus-17, despite playing just 15 minutes before hitting the showers. We should know by Wednesday’s shootaround whether or not he’ll face Golden State.


Hassan Chop
Wade had better be there if Miami’s going to have any real shot of winning this game. The Heat roster as constructed isn’t getting the job done, partly because Josh McRoberts (42.1 percent from downtown) has been lost for what should be the entire season after undergoing knee surgery last month.

But this cloud does have a silver lining. With McRoberts on the shelf and Chris Andersen (14.7 PER) moving into the starting rotation, Hassan Whiteside has been getting plenty of minutes in a reserve role, and he’s making the most of it with a 25.8 PER, putting up 16.6 points and 14.4 rebounds per 36 minutes. We’re adding Golden State to our NBA picks regardless, but if Wade plays and Whiteside keeps this up, 13 points might end up being too many.

Free NBA Pick: Take the Warriors

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