Warriors vs. Hawks Free NBA Picks: Expecting Low Scoring Game

Kevin Stott

Monday, February 22, 2016 12:54 PM GMT

Monday, Feb. 22, 2016 12:54 PM GMT

Stephen Curry and the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors head east three Time Zones to the Philips Center in Atlanta on Monday night. Let's review the NBA odds first!

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883297, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,169], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Final Score Prediction: Warriors 111  Hawks 104
NBA Pick: Under 223.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

Golden State Warriors vs. Atlanta Hawks
The Golden State Warriors (49-4 SU, 31-22-1 ATS) head east to the Philips Center in Atlanta on Monday night to face the Hawks (31-26 SU, 27-29-1 ATS) in an inter-conference date and big game for the hosts if they can pull off the upset. This will be the first of two meetings between these teams teams this season, with the Warriors hosting Atlanta in the ORACLE Arena on March 1 (NBA-TV). NBA odds makers here in Las Vegas have opened the Warriors as 7-point favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) here with the game’s Total (Points) set at 223½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). The Money Line (Winner) odds see Golden State priced at -295 (Pinnacle) with host Atlanta lined at +260 on the takeback as the Home underdogs.

 

Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors (25-5 SU Road, 18-11-1 ATS Road) and Head Coach Steve Kerr bounced back from a 32-point Loss to the Trail Blazers in Portland on Friday night by beating the Clippers in Los Angeles on Saturday night, 115-112, (GSW -4, 228, Under) as G’s Klay Thompson (32 points) and Stephen Curry (23 points) led the visitors in scoring and F’s Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes each scored 18 points as the champs shot 51.2% from the Field (42-82). Golden State (+125 to win NBA Championship, Coral) is 1-1 to start its 6-game Road Trip which continues here after a long, 2,173-mile flight from Los Angeles to Atlanta and a three hour time change from playing in the PT to the ET. The Warriors (115.3 AF-103.8 AA) come into this game with starting C Andrew Bogut (Achilles) listed as Questionable, so with backup C Festus Ezeli (Knee) out until late March, expect Bogut to do everything in his power to try to play here and for Atlanta to try to exploit that weakness down low with both C’s banged up and at least one out. 6-11 backup PF Jason Thompson may be called on to play some C—or at least guard that position—or All-Star PF Green could also very well fill in. Reports circulating on Sunday have Golden State said to be in pursuit (and the leaders in the race) of Cavaliers backup Center and soon-to-be Free Agent Anderson Varejão and the 33-year-old veteran Brazilian would be a nice fit with international Big Men Bogut (Australia) and Ezeli (Nigeria) Centers already onboard. Warriors SF James Michael McAdoo (Toe) is listed as Questionable.

 

Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks (17-11 SU Home, 14-14 ATS Home) suffered a tough Loss in their last outing, a 117-109 double-OT Loss here in Philips Arena on Saturday night, the second straight Home Loss since post-All-Star Break play for Atlanta (4-6 SU L10), which fell to a Dwayne Wade-less and Chris Bosh-less Miami Heat squad on Friday night. PF Paul Millsap (27 points) and Dennis Schroeder (25 points, 10 assists) lead the hosts Atlanta in scoring against the Bucks, but the Hawks committed 21 TOs and Head Coach Mike Budenholzer can’t be pleased with this start heading into the Regular Season’s (theoretical) 2nd Half which now finds 5th-place Atlanta just 1½ games ahead of 8th-place Chicago (28-26 SU) for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Last week the Hawks (102.7 AF-100.2 AA) got news that backup C Tiago Splitter (Hip) will require surgery and will be missing the rest of the season as well as the opportunity to play for his native Brazil in the 2016 Summer Olympics. Atlanta (20/1 to win Eastern Conference, 10Red) starting PG Jeff Teague (Wrist) hurt his wrist in the Loss to the Bucks on Saturday night but returned to the game and is listed as Probable for this affair on Monday. With Curry and the the Warriors in town, he’ll be ready and the Hawks will need him.

 

Trends, Series Information and Pick
In the L10 meetings in this series, Klay Thompson and the defending NBA champion Warriors are 6-4 both SU and ATS with the Under 6-4 ATS in those 10 meetings and an average score of Warriors 102.8 ppg, Hawks 100.4 ppg. Atlanta (45.3 rpg) has surprisingly held the Rebounding edge over the Warriors (42.3 rpg) in those 10 games but with the Hawks having C Al Horford and PF Paul Millsap and Golden State not really blossoming until about 2 seasons ago, the numbers are understandable. When these two met last season, the Warriors won 114-95 at the ORACLE Arena in Oakland (GSW -7, 207½, Over) while six weeks earlier in Atlanta, the Hawks won (and covered) 124-116 (GSW -2, 213, Over). Golden State (9-1 SU L10) has been pretty good ATS on the Road (17-11-1) this season, but with the Hawks riding a 2-game Losing Streak and seeing teams below them quickly gaining ground, expect Atlanta to put forth a solid effort.
Trend-wise the Over is 6-2 ATS in the Warriors L8 games against Southeast Division foes and 27-12 ATS in the Warriors L39 games played on Monday. The Over is also 12-5 ATS in the L17 Monday games for Atlanta while the Under is 9-4 ATS the Hawks L13 against the Western Conference and the Hawks are 17-8 ATS in their L25 Monday games. So, a little of this and a little of that. Also, the Underdog is also 11-5 ATS the L16 meetings. So, much meaninglessness and stuff hard to apply here. And what’s funny, is that the game that may most be in the forefront of one of these two teams’ minds is that blowout at the hands of the Trail Blazers in Golden State’s heads. The Globetrotters of the NBA went up to the Rose Garden and got humbled. Really humbled.
With the Warriors having had to travel to the Peach State, having Injury issues at the Center spot, it being a (sluggish Winter) Monday, Atlanta possibly tired from its double-OT Loss to Milwaukee and the Total in this game seemingly set just a little high, backing the Under seems the safest angle in what proves to be a very difficult handicap. Maybe using the Warriors in the Money Line (-295, Pinnacle) market as a parlay element with a couple of other decent sides is the best approach here as this suddenly seems both like one of those game in which Golden State could roll or end up losing because of thinness at Center, fear and the realities of dealing with traveling and losing 3 hours off their Body Clock after playing in Portland and Los Angeles. And this is where trying to break the Chicago Bulls 1995/1996 Regular Season victory record could get tough. Add Under as the sharp NBA pick.

comment here