Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA Picks: Back Memphis to Upset Golden State in Game 3

Charles Stark

Saturday, May 9, 2015 7:40 PM GMT

Saturday, May. 9, 2015 7:40 PM GMT

Today I am backing the Memphis Grizzlies on the plus money line to upset the Golden State Warriors. To me there is a lot of value on the Grizzlies at home in this spot.

Quick Recap and the Line
After handing the Grizzlies a loss in the first game of the series Mike Conley came back to lead Memphis to a pretty shocking game two win.  In that win Memphis held the Warriors to a real low 42% shooting from the field and 23% from beyond the arc. NBA odds makers have come out making the Warriors a -4 favorite, to me this is about right but the value is with the Grizzlies in my opinion.

 

Stay on Pace
Here is the guts of this series for me so far, Memphis has come in with a good game plan against the Warriors, control the pace. On the season Golden State averaged almost 87 shots per game, but in the first game they only got up 77 and then only 74 in the loss. Their plan didn’t work so well in the first match up mainly because the Warriors shot lights out (50% from the field and 46% from the beyond the arc), but with Conley back they did exactly what they wanted to do in that aspect… limit shots.

 

Tough at Home
In Memphis the Grizzlies are very tough defensively. They go from allowing opponents on the year 44% shooting from the floor to 42% at home. They also step it up defending from beyond the arc from a 35% average to below 34% at home. They are a very different monster at home.

The more I look at the match ups the more I like the Grizzlies to win game three. Odds makers I think are in the right spot making the Warriors the favorites expecting public money to back them, but let’s all remember this Grizzlies team is veteran staffed and playoff experienced. They will have a good game plan ready to get this upset.

NBA Pick: Take the Grizzlies +4.5 at BetOnline with your NBA picks

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