Warriors Road To 73: Can Curry & Co. Overcome The Pressure?

Jason Lake

Thursday, April 14, 2016 3:24 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 14, 2016 3:24 PM UTC

The Golden State Warriors can fulfill their Quest for 73 in Wednesday's season finale versus the Memphis Grizzlies. The NBA odds look very, very good for Golden State.

Jason's 2015-16 record as of April 12: 33-35-1 ATS, 6-3-1 Total

So here we are at the end of another NBA regular season. There are some very interesting games on Wednesday's schedule, games that could decide the playoff fates of several teams, but there's only one matchup on most people's minds: the Golden State Warriors hosting the Memphis Grizzlies, tipping off at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Will the Warriors get the win and break the old record of 72 set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls?

Probably. At press time, the Warriors (72-9 SU, 44-35-2 ATS) are laying 18 points on the NBA odds boards, which translates to something well over 97 percent for the win, according to Wizard of Odds – their conversion chart only goes up to 17 points. But let's not write off the Grizz (42-39 SU, 42-38-1 ATS) just yet. They might have enough incentive, and warm bodies, to give the Dubs a run for their money.

Must Read: Warriors Close To Historical Record

Running on Empty
We expect the betting market to be jam-packed with casual fans for this matchup, and that 18-point spread does appear rather bloated already. FiveThirtyEight projects Golden State to win this game “just” 93 percent of the time. How does that projection look as a point spread? Glad you asked.

FiveThirtyEight (CARM-Elo): Golden State -16
Basketball-Reference (SRS): Golden State -15.59

Not quite as bloated as we thought. As always, keep in mind that these projections don't take injuries into account, and Memphis has to make do Wednesday without center Marc Gasol (17.7 PER, +1.0 BPM), point guard Mike Conley (19.4 PER, +1.8 BPM) and center Brandan Wright (18.3 PER, +1.0 BPM).

It doesn't look good for swingman Tony Allen (12.9 PER, -0.1 BPM) either, after he missed Tuesday's 110-84 tire fire against the Los Angeles Clippers (-9 at home) with a sore left hamstring.


Forget the Alamo
The Grizzlies might not have the personnel to get the W this Wednesday, but they do have plenty of motivation to try. They can reclaim the No.6 seed in the Western Conference with a win over Golden State, and a loss by the Dallas Mavericks in their game against the San Antonio Spurs. That would allow Memphis to avoid the No.2 Spurs in the first round; instead, the Grizz would play the No.3 Oklahoma City Thunder.

Yeah, that's probably not going to be enough to get Memphis over the hump. This is a wounded team on the skids at 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS over the past 10 games. But we're putting the Grizzlies in our NBA picks anyway.

They're 5-2 ATS this year as double-digit underdogs, and the Warriors are 9-13 ATS when favored by two touchdowns or more. Let's go with a small value bet on the gigantic underdogs, and you may want to consider waiting closer to tip-off for a better price.

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Free NBA Pick: Memphis Grizzlies +19 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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