Warriors' Push Back Makes Game 2 Against Thunder An 'Under' NBA Pick

Wednesday, May 18, 2016 3:05 PM GMT

 When the fat and happy Golden State Warriors took the court in the 2nd half, they found a much hungrier more motivated team in the Thunder. Let's study the NBA odds to see what's next!

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors
Oklahoma City and Golden State resume their 2016 NBA Playoff Round #3 Series with Game #2 at Golden State. The game is scheduled for a 9:00 PM ET tip as televised by TNT. When these 2016 Playoffs began, Golden State had just completed a record breaking 73-9 regular season. As defending champions, they were the odds on favorite, as the purported best team in the NBA, to repeat their NBA Championship of last year. To further build their egos, last week All Star point guard Steph Curry was anointed with the MVP for consecutive seasons. This time by a unanimous landslide vote!  The overconfidence has been too much to bear. 

The result was a 2nd half in which Golden State scored only 42 points including just 14 in the 4thquarter. Now the handicapper is faced with the daily conundrum, does Golden State, who is 11-0 SU this season, bounce back from that defeat or does OKC take total command of this series.  

Breakdown Of Game 1 Stats
The answer to that question can be found in a breakdown of the Game #1 stats. OKC superstars Durant and Westbrook shot only 33% from the field but totaled 51 points. Their all-around contributions led to the success of a perfectly balanced OKC team. Durant contributed 10 rebounds while Westbrook dealt 12 assists and had 7 steals. If you are asking faux or fo-real, consider it was the Thunder’s 3rd consecutive road win against San Antonio and Golden State, a pair of teams who combined for only 3 home losses in the 82 game regular season.  

It may, however, be the fundamentals which are the true measuring stick for this contest. In the regular season, OKC had a +8.4 rebound margin, twice as many as any team in the NBA. They have upped that to 9.5 in the post season including a 52-44 edge against the Warriors in Game #1. In addition, OKC went to the foul line 32 times compared to 17 trips for the Warriors. This is a key statistic because it prevents Golden State from the continuity of a full court game in which they thrive.

 

Conclusions
In the final analysis, OKC is quite simply playing the better ball right now. This was proven in the 2nd half of Game #1. A home court where Golden State is 44-3 SU is a major ally as is the fact that they have yet to lose consecutive games all season. But this 8 ½ point impost is in no way representative of the relative strengths of these two teams.  

I invite you to put the NBA odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on the OKC Thunder in Game #2 of this Playoff Series. Now that OKC has wrested home court advantage, one might also consider a play on the Thunder for the series at a lofty price of +175. Completing your analysis, I also find value in going UNDER the total of 222 ½ with the knowledge that the UNDER is 41-26 in NBA Playoff games this season. Looking for a profitable moneyline pick instead? Cash in on Warriors winning tonight!

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Free NBA  Pick: Under 222
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker